World Cup Group B Could Be Toughest Of Qatar 2022 World Cup, But Group E Is Most Valuable

To win the World Cup, you need to beat the best at some point. But it is easier to go far in the competition if you have a kind draw.

At the Qatar 2022 World Cup draw, the big teams in Pot 2 – Germany and the Netherlands – looked to be the teams to avoid. With Germany and Spain both being placed in Group E, could this be 2022’s “Group of Death”?

At the draw for the 2014 World Cup, the boss of the English FA, Greg Dyke, famously made a throat-cutting gesture to show what he thought of England’s group. In that tournament, they faced Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica, and Dyke’s gesture was prophetic as England were eliminated before they even played their final group stage match.

This year, England’s group of Iran, the USA, and one of Wales, Scotland or Ukraine looks a little bit easier. But in fact, when based on FIFA rankings, it could be the toughest group of the lot.

Should Wales, the highest ranked team in the UEFA playoff matches, qualify then Group B would have an average FIFA ranking of 14.75, making it the toughest group. Group D, which contains France, Denmark and Tunisia would be the next toughest (assuming Peru qualify), and Group E would be third.

Should Ukraine qualify then Group B would still be the toughest based on FIFA rankings, but should Scotland qualify then it would be the fourth toughest. That said, based on England’s goalless draw against Scotland at Euro 2020, England fans are unlikely to see Scotland as an easy opponent.

Group A, featuring hosts Qatar, is unsurprisingly the easiest group based on FIFA rankings, but while many people will assume that Qatar are pushovers, their FIFA ranking is actually better than Russia’s was when the draw was made for the 2018 World Cup, and Russia reached the quarter finals of that tournament.

FIFA’s ranking system has come in for a lot of criticism over the years, seeming not to reflect the reality of how good or bad some teams are. Belgium, for example, were top of the FIFA rankings for years despite not winning any major tournaments.

That’s why some suggest Elo rankings to be more accurate. Elo rankings were originally used in chess and give points based on the opposition’s relative skill level. A few years ago, FIFA changed its ranking system to one more similar to the Elo system, and as a result the gap between FIFA’s rankings and the Elo rankings are narrower.

Brazil are currently ranked top by both the FIFA and Elo systems, while France are ranked second by Elo and Belgium are second based on FIFA’s rankings.

Group B with Wales would still be the hardest group based on Elo rankings, but Group E would be the second toughest rather than Group D, and Group H, rather than Group A, would be the easiest.

Team value is very subjective and tough to calculate, but based on transfermarkt.com’s values, Group E, containing Germany and Spain, is the most valuable group. It is followed by either Group G, featuring Brazil, or Group B depending on which team from the UEFA playoff completes Group B.

The 2018 World Cup was the first to use the current system of FIFA rankings to determine pots for the draw, with the world cups before that splitting teams by confederation. In 2018, the only teams not in pots one or two to get past the group stage were Sweden, Denmark and Japan.

For teams in pots three or four this time, the strength of the pot two team in their group could determine whether they will reach the knockout rounds.

Based on FIFA rankings, Mexico in Group C is the toughest pot two opponent, and based on Elo, it is Uruguay in Group H, so while Group H is the weakest based on Elo rankings, it could still be the worst possible draw for Ghana and South Korea.

With several places for the Qatar 2022 World Cup not yet decided, it is hard to say which group is the toughest, and it is also relative to each team; a tough group for Ghana might be a relatively easy group for Uruguay.

It is also relative to ambition, or whether a team wants to win the group or just finish in the top two.

While finishing second gets teams into the next round, in 2014, every team that finished top of their group reached the quarter finals, and in 2018, no groups saw the second-placed team go further in the competition than the group winners.

World Cup 2022 Groups

Group A: Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal, Netherlands

Group B: England, Iran, United States, one of Ukraine, Scotland or Wales

Group C: Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Poland

Group D: France, Denmark, Tunisia, one of Australia, United Arab Emirates or Peru

Group E: Spain, Germany, Japan, one of New Zealand or Costa Rica

Group F: Belgium, Canada, Morocco, Croatia

Group G: Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon

Group H: Portugal, Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea