With Sweden And Finland Set To Join NATO, Europe’s Geography Just Got A Lot More Difficult For Russia

Turkey will lift its objection to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, setting the stage for the alliance’s biggest expansion in a generation.

The expansion will dramatically alter Europe’s strategic geography—in NATO’s favor.

The decision came at the beginning of a NATO summit Tuesday in Madrid. “We had a thorough meeting with President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson, facilitated by Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg,” announced Sauli Niinistö, the president of Finland.

The Finnish and Swedish governments stated their intentions to join the 30-country military alliance back in April, six weeks into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. Both countries for decades maintained a Western-leaning non-alignment—coordinating and training with NATO but avoiding any treaty entanglements.

Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine changed everything. Popular opinion in Sweden and Finland quickly shifted in favor of joining NATO. Article V of the alliance charter obligates member states to defend each other in the event of an attack.

Turkey stood in the way of Swedish and Finnish membership, at first. The NATO charter requires the unanimous consent of existing member states before any new state can join. Erdogan objected, unfairly accusing Sweden and Finland of supporting two Kurdish militant groups, the PKK and YPG.

It’s also possible Erdogan was angling for favorable deals on Western weaponry, potentially including upgrades for F-16 fighters.

In Madrid, Swedish and Finnish officials reaffirmed their commitment to counterterrorism. That, plus whatever arms deals get announced in coming days, clearly was enough for the Turks. “The concrete steps of our accession to NATO will be agreed by the NATO allies during the next two days, but that decision is now imminent,” Niinistö said.

In joining NATO, Finland adds its 24,000 active troops, 100 warplanes and scores of warships to the alliance, while Sweden adds its own 15,000 active troops plus similar numbers of planes and ships.

The additional manpower isn’t hugely significant in an alliance that already includes 3.5 million troops. The geographical changes arguably are more important. With Finland and Sweden in NATO, the alliance extends along all Finland’s 830-mile land border with Russia—and also nearly encircles the Baltic Sea.

The latter is key. NATO’s most vulnerable members—Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia—are sandwiched on the Baltic between Russia and Kaliningrad, Russia’s Baltic exclave. “NATO would almost certainly need basing rights in Finland and Sweden to defend the Baltic states,” the New York City-based Council on Foreign Relations explained prior to Tuesday’s membership announcement.

Admitting Finland and Sweden gives NATO myriad air bases, ports and lines of communication north of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, facilitating swift reinforcement of the three countries in the event of a Russian attack.