Topline
President Donald Trump recently suggested Americans would be paid out $2,000 using tariff revenue, defending his controversial trade policy as it faces legal hurdles, though bettors express serious doubts over checks actually materializing.
Trump has said the checks will not apply to high income earners. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
Trump said in a Truth Social post Sunday that, “People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS,” adding, “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
The president’s post reiterated a statement he made in October saying the federal government will “probably” provide some tariff revenue to Americans “over the next fairly short period of time.”
Bettors are highly skeptical, as a listing on Kalshi titled “Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks this year?” sits at an 8% chance as of Wednesday afternoon, with at least 1 million Americans needing to receive payments of at least $1,000 before the end of the year for the “yes” bets on the listing to succeed.
Odds are more favorable on an identical listing from Polymarket (14%), with odds increasing slightly— to 20%—on a listing that revolves around the tariff dividends being created by March 31, 2026.
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Contra
Economists have cast doubt on the practicality of tariff dividend checks, which would presumably need approval from Congress. The checks could add roughly $330 billion to the national debt, according to Dean Baker, a senior economist at the Center for Economic Policy and Research. Baker said in a blog post he suspects most lawmakers in Washington, D.C., are concerned about the $1.8 trillion budget deficit for 2026, “and certainly anyone who thinks we need to be paying down the debt should be screaming bloody murder.”