Will Trump Go To Prison? Counts Against Him Could Result In 136-Year Sentence

Topline

Former President Donald Trump has been indicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records stemming from hush money payments made during the 2016 election—charges that could land him in prison for decades were he to be convicted and face the maximum sentence, though it’s in doubt if he’ll spend any time behind bars at all.

Former President Donald Trump sits with his attorneys inside the courtroom during his arraignment at … [+] the Manhattan Criminal Court on April 4 in New York City.

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Key Facts

The 34 counts against Trump are all for falsifying business records in the first degree, which is a “class E” felony in New York that carries a maximum prison sentence of four years.

Were Trump to be convicted on all 34 counts, that means the total maximum sentence he could face with all the charges combined would be 136 years in state prison.

It’s unlikely that will actually happen, though: New York criminal law experts have said as a first-time offender, Trump is not expected to face prison time—or, if he is, it would only be a few months.

The state statute outlawing punishments for felony offenses notes that for class D and E felonies, courts may impose an alternative sentence of “one year or less” for first-time offenders, taking into account “the nature and circumstances of the crime and to the history and character of the defendant.”

Diana Florence, a former prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney’s office, told Law & Crime that even if Trump was sentenced to more than a year in prison, “he’d spend very little of that in custody” and would likely be released after a few months.

Crucial Quote

“I can’t say for absolute 100% certainty there can’t be jail because on the books, he can go to jail,” defense attorney and former Brooklyn prosecutor Arthur Aidala told Insider. But, he added, “I do not see a scenario where Donald Trump spends one minute in jail.”

What We Don’t Know

Whether Trump will even be convicted. Legal experts have cast some doubt on the legal theory behind the charges against Trump, which requires there to be an underlying crime that the falsified business records were covering up in order to be classified as a felony rather than misdemeanor. The indictment against Trump didn’t really spell out what prosecutors allege that underlying crime was—which will have an impact on the strength of the case against Trump—and there have been concerns about alleging in state court that Trump was trying to cover up a federal election crime, rather than a state one. There have also been concerns about whether the case is within the statute of limitations.

What To Watch For

The case against Trump isn’t expected to go to trial until next year, with prosecutors asking the court Tuesday for a January 2024 trial while Trump’s legal team asked for it to be in the spring. It also may not be the only criminal charges the ex-president could face, as Trump also faces possible charges in three other ongoing investigations, including a Georgia investigation into the 2020 election and federal probes into the post-election period and January 6, and Trump’s handling of White House documents brought back to Mar-A-Lago.

Chief Critic

Trump has pleaded not guilty to the crimes against him and denied any illegal behavior, calling the case against him “Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history.”

Surprising Fact

Even if Trump is convicted, it still wouldn’t necessarily stop him from running for president beyond the logistics, as there’s nothing in the Constitution that bars convicted felons from the White House—though depending on state law, he could be barred from voting for himself.

Key Background

Trump was indicted Thursday and arraigned Tuesday on the charges of falsifying business records, which are based on allegations that Trump reimbursed ex-attorney Michael Cohen for $130,000 paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during Trump’s 2016 campaign to cover up an alleged affair. The indictment alleges the reimbursements were part of a broader scheme to cover up unflattering stories involving Trump in the run-up to 2016, which Trump and Cohen allegedly coordinated with American Media (AMI) CEO David Pecker. AMI, the publisher of the National Enquirer, also paid $150,000 to cover up a separate alleged affair between Trump and Playboy model Karen McDougal and $30,000 to a former Trump Tower doorman with a—ultimately false—story claiming Trump had a child out of wedlock, the indictment alleges, which were all allegedly done at Trump’s direction. The charges against Trump mark the first time a former or sitting president has been charged with a crime, and come after federal prosecutors previously declined to indict Trump over the hush money payments in 2018. According to the New York Times, prosecutors at the time feared that doing so would violate a government directive against indicting sitting presidents, and after he left office, continued to have doubts about Cohen’s credibility as a witness after he was convicted over the payments.

Will Trump Go To Prison? Counts Against Him Could Result In 136-Year Sentence—But It’s Highly Unlikely