Topline
Former President Donald Trump has said on social media that he expects to be arrested Tuesday in Manhattan on charges stemming from “hush money” payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels—but while the work of the grand jury considering the charges is secret, reports suggest it’s not expected that Trump will be indicted so soon.
Former President Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower on August 10, 2022 in New York City.
Key Facts
Trump said on Truth Social Saturday he would be arrested on Tuesday and called for protests, though his attorneys later confirmed that was speculation on his part and they were not given any advance notice that he would be arrested on Tuesday.
The grand jury hearing the case, who will vote on whether or not to approve charges against Trump, meets on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, and while their work is under wraps, there’s no indication they voted on Monday to indict Trump, which would have made a Tuesday arrest more possible.
Witness Robert Costello testified to the grand jury on Monday, and MSNBC legal analyst Jonathan Dienst noted his testimony appeared to wrap up late in the day enough that it’s unlikely the jury voted on charges.
Citing a source close to Trump’s legal team, CNN reported Tuesday Trump’s attorneys did not know as of Monday night when an arrest will take place, but have been told by the Manhattan district attorney’s office that “nothing was expected Tuesday.”
Fox News reports the grand jury will hear from another witness on Wednesday, suggesting their work is ongoing, and it’s unclear if their work will wrap up then or continue until Friday, though Dienst said it’s likely more information could be known by Wednesday.
What We Don’t Know
How long it will take for Trump to be arrested. Even if the jury does vote to indict Trump, he won’t be immediately arrested, as sources in the Manhattan district attorney’s office noted to the New York Times that they would still have to arrange the timing of Trump’s surrender to authorities, along with his travel to Manhattan and other logistics. That could take a few days, and CNN reports Trump’s legal team doesn’t expect him to be arrested until next week. If he is arrested, Trump is expected to voluntarily surrender to the authorities and will be arraigned in Manhattan, though it’s expected he would be immediately released on his own recognizance and would not be held in custody.
What To Watch For
Any protests that will take place Tuesday even if Trump isn’t arrested. Trump called on Saturday for his supporters to “protest, take our nation back,” and law enforcement started putting up barriers Monday around the courthouse in Manhattan where Trump could be arraigned, as well as the U.S. Capitol building in Washington. A handful of protests are reportedly planned for Tuesday—including one at an In-N-Out in California—though it remains unclear how many Trump supporters will show up. Many of the president’s fans and organizers of the January 6 riot have reportedly discouraged each other from protesting this time around, saying they believe protesting would be a “trap” for them to be caught by law enforcement.
Key Background
Trump is expected to be indicted for falsifying business records after he allegedly reimbursed ex-attorney Michael Cohen for the $130,000 in “hush money” payments Cohen made to Daniels, which were made during Trump’s 2016 campaign to cover up an alleged affair. Falsifying records can be a felony in New York if done to cover up another crime, and legal experts cited by Insider speculate Trump could face a prison sentence of up to four years if he’s convicted. The Manhattan DA’s office has been investigating Trump since 2019, and while the payments to Daniels were the initial focus of the probe, it then expanded to more broadly look at the Trump Organization’s financials. That resulted in the company and Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg being convicted for tax fraud, but the DA’s office did not bring any charges against Trump directly. The Times reported in November the DA had restarted his investigation into Trump with a renewed focus on the hush money payments, and the grand jury has been hearing from witnesses for several months, including Cohen.
Further Reading
Here’s What Will Happen If Trump Is Arrested (Yes, He’ll Probably Get A Mugshot) (Forbes)
New York And D.C. Beef Up Security For Possible Trump Indictment Unrest (Forbes)
Trump Says He Will Be Arrested Tuesday—Urges Supporters To Protest (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/03/21/will-trump-be-arrested-tuesday-heres-what-we-know-but-its-unlikely/