Will The Green Bay Packers Trade Up When The Run On Wide Receivers Begins?

The run seems inevitable.

At some point during the first 10 picks of this NFL Draft, the first wide receiver will be taken. Moments later, there will be another. And another. And quickly two or three more.

By the time the draft gets 20 picks in, don’t be shocked if five, even six wide receivers are off the board. That’s what happens when a positional group is blessed with tremendous talent and several teams in the middle of the draft have glaring needs at the wide receiver position.

In Green Bay, the Packers must decide whether they can stay put at picks No. 22 and 28 and get a wideout that can provide immediate help. Or the Packers might have to take a “go big or go home” approach and jump up into the top-10 or top-15 to get the wideout that makes their heart skip a beat.

“It’s another really good class of wideouts,” one AFC scout told me this week. “That’s becoming more and more the norm the way football is played now at the youth levels and all the way through college. People throw it more than ever.

“But there’s still six or seven that I think are better the rest. And once one or two of them go, I think they’re going to come flying off the board.”

That’s been the case with certain positional groups for years now.

In 2021, the top three picks and five of the first 15 selections were quarterbacks.

In 2020, five wide receivers went between picks 15 and 25.

And in 2019, three of the top four and eight of the top-19 picks were defensive linemen.

For several reasons, there figures to be a run on wideouts in the middle part of this draft.

First off, the group is loaded with high level talent. So don’t be shocked if Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, USC’s Drake London, Treylon Burks of Arkansas, Ohio State’s Chris Olave and Penn State’s Jahan Dotson all go in the first 20 picks.

Second, seven teams drafting between picks No. 8 and 19 need help at wide receiver. That group includes Atlanta, the New York Jets, Washington, Houston, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New Orleans.

Don’t be surprised if at least five of those teams grab a wideout when their pick comes up.

Third, there are eight teams — including Green Bay — with two first round picks in this draft. The list includes Detroit (No. 2 and 32), Houston (3 and 13), the Jets (4 and 10), the New York Giants (5 and 7), Philadelphia (15 and 18), New Orleans (16 and 19), Green Bay (22 and 28) and Kansas City (29 and 30).

Of that group, only the Giants — who spent more money on the wide receiver position than any team in football in 2021 — seem unlikely to take a wideout. The other seven teams all need immediate help.

Of course, a case could be made that Green Bay needs more help than anyone else.

Green Bay traded All-Pro wideout Davante Adams to Las Vegas for a first- and second-round draft pick this offseason. And now, the Packers’ top four consists of Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers.

Lazard was undrafted coming out of Iowa State due to a lack of explosiveness — something that certainly hasn’t changed. Watkins, signed off the street last week, had career lows in receptions (27), yards (394) and touchdowns (one) in 2021.

Cobb, set to enter his 12^th season, hasn’t played a full year since 2015. And Rodgers was dreadful as a rookie in 2021.

That’s not a group that will help you get past the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or any of the other teams that emerge in the NFC next season.

“You never really replace a guy like Davante Adams,” Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said at last month’s owner’s meetings. “It’s going to be more cumulative and how the whole team steps up and plays and what we can add to that. So, getting the two picks and having four picks in the top 59 I think gives us a little bit of ammunition to try to make a difference there a little bit.”

Gutekunst hasn’t been shy when it comes to first round trades since he took over in 2018.

During Gutekunst’s first draft, he traded back from pick No. 14 to 27, then moved back up to No. 18 and selected cornerback Jaire Alexander.

In 2019, Gutekunst traded pick No. 30 and two fourth rounders to Seattle for pick No. 21 and took safety Darnell Savage.

And in 2020, Gutekunst traded pick No. 30 and a fourth rounder for pick No. 26 and selected quarterback Jordan Love.

If there is a run on wideouts, Gutekunst will have plenty of firepower to maneuver. The Packers have four of the first 59 picks in the draft — No. 22, 28, 53 and 59.

According to the NFL Draft Trade Value Chart, pick No. 22 is worth 780 points, No. 28 is worth 660, No. 53 is worth 370 and No. 59 is worth 310.

That means the Packers’ two first round picks are worth 1,440 points. The seventh overall pick is worth 1,500 points and No. 8 is worth 1,400, meaning Green Bay could package its two No. 1’s and get itself into that range.

Picks No. 22 and 53 add up to 1,150 points — which is the exact value of the 13^th overall selection. And picks No. 28 and 59 are worth 970 points, which is roughly the same amount as pick No. 17 (950 points).

Gutekunst has the ammunition to make a deal and leave this draft with a potential No. 1 wideout. Unfortunately for him, several other teams have just as much ammo and the same needs Green Bay has.

The Packers have a short window remaining with soon-to-be 39-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. And Gutekunst must find his quarterback some immediate help in this draft.

At some point that wide receiver run is going to happen.

Whether Gutekunst can get in on it will go a long way in determining where the 2022 Packers are headed.