Will One Film Win Everything Everywhere All At Once?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs) were handed out on February 26th, and it was a sweep for Everything Everywhere All at Once, the multiverse action film with a heart. The film won the most SAG categories of any film in the history of those awards. While the actors branch is the biggest section of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, it’s important to remember that everyone with a SAG card isn’t an Academy member. The Academy skews older and has a more conservative taste for cinema than the average SAG member. The SAG results may not be entirely predictive of the Oscar race, but Everything Everywhere is certainly the film to beat as the awards race enters its home stretch.

Everything Everywhere All at Once was the 2022 film version of The Little Engine That Could. With the exception of Jamie Lee Curtis, the entire cast is only well-known overseas. For a martial arts-inspired action film, it was made on a relatively meager budget of $ 25 million. On it’s opening weekend, it only grossed $ 501,000. That’s the box office performance of a bona fide bomb.

And then something unexpected happened: EEAAO became a word-of-mouth sensation in a social media world. The grosses increased as the weekends went by, and the film stayed in theaters for months. (Neither of those things happen in the modern film industry. Grosses decline every weekend until the film is launched on digital rental platforms about six weeks or so after theatrical release.) The film became the darling of fans and film critics alike, taking home countless end-of-year awards for its creators and cast.

Now an indie, sci-flavored action film that was released nearly a year ago is poised to sweep the Oscars on March 12th. But will it? If it does, it may very well herald the dawning of a younger, more progressive, Oscar aesthetic. The Academy loves its period dramas and biopics. The sci-fi genre has a history of cleaning up in the technical awards (Sound Editing, Special Effects, Production Design and the like), but it rarely takes home the gold for Best Picture and Best Director. Just ask George Miller, the filmmaker behind Mad Max: Fury Road (2015).

So if the Everything Everywhere All at Once wave doesn’t wash through the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles on Sunday night, is it yet another chapter of #OscarSoWhite? I don’t think so, but maybe I’m naive. The dominance of Bong Joon-Ho and Parasite at the 2020 Oscar ceremony seems to dispel the idea of an inherent anti-Asian bias.

If EEAAO in any way underperforms on its biggest night, I think it’s good old-fashioned genre bias. Name the last comedy, science fiction film or horror film to win Best Picture. I think that’s the bigger point to be made here. EEAAO is in a genre category that rarely takes home the big prize. It’s been almost twenty years since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King was named Best Picture at the 2004 Academy Awards, and EEAAO doesn’t have that kind of scope and grandeur. The Return of the King was the Lawrence of Arabia of genre film-making and was anointed as such by winning eleven Oscars that year.

Best Original Screenplay

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN — Written by Martin McDonagh

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE — Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

THE FABELMANS — Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner

TÁR — Written by Todd Field

TRIANGLE OF SADNESS — Written by Ruben Östlund

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin by Martin McDonagh. This could be the only trophy that Banshees brings home, but McDonagh could easily lose to Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (known to fans as “the Daniels”) if it’s an Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep in the making. Screenplay is often used as a way to recognize a talented newcomer (Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction, Jordan Peele for Get Out), so that leans in the Daniels’ direction. However, Academy voters also seem to take note of how many times someone has been nominated and then gone home empty-handed. McDonagh is a prize-winning playwright and the best wordsmith on this roster of nominees. He won’t win Best Director, but his third nomination in this category will be the charm.

Should Win: Banshees

Best Adapted Screenplay

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT — Screenplay – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell

GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY — Written by Rian Johnson

LIVING — Written by Kazuo Ishiguro

TOP GUN: MAVERICK — Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

WOMEN TALKING — Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Will Win: Women Talking by Sarah Polley. Call it Sarah Polley’s consolation prize for being snubbed in the historically all-male sandbox that is the Best Director category. (For the record, she should have Ruben Ostland’s slot.) That said, Women Talking is an amazing piece of writing. The film chronicles a diverse collection of women (ranging in age from their teens to their 70’s) who have gathered in secret to discuss their abuse at the hands of the men who rule their religious community. Giving each of these female characters an individual voice is a stunning accomplishment. Don’t get me started on how many of these wonderful actresses should be among the acting nominees. At least, Polley will get to collect a trophy for this excellent film.

Should Win: Women Talking

Best Cinematography

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT — James Friend

BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS — Darius Khondji

ELVIS — Mandy Walker

EMPIRE OF LIGHT — Roger Deakins

TÁR — Florian Hoffmeister

Will Win: James Friend for All Quiet on the Western Front. What do The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957), The Longest Day (1962), Apocalypse Now (1979), Saving Private Ryan (1998) and 1917 (2019) have in common. They’re all war films, and they all won Oscars for Best Cinematography. The Academy reveres its war pictures. For as long as there have been movies, there have been war movies, and the Academy loves its grand traditions. That’s not to say All Quiet isn’t deserving. One reason war films win so often is they are so damn difficult to stage and film.

Should Win: Darius Khondji for Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths. Khondji is a bona fide rock star director of photography having been behind the camera for the likes of David Fincher (Seven, Panic Room), James Gray (The Immigrant, The Lost City of Z, Armageddon Time), Wong Kar-Wai (My Blueberry Nights), Michael Haneke (Amour), Bong Joon-Ho (Okja) and the Safdie brothers (Uncut Gems). In Bardo, he brings the stream of consciousness narrative from Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu to stunning life. It’s a clinic for camera placement, camera movement and lighting. It should be the first of many Oscars headed Khondji’s way, but it won’t be. The war film will take this category once again.

Best International Film

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT — Germany

ARGENTINA, 1985 — Argentina

CLOSE — Belgium

EO — Poland

THE QUIET GIRL — Ireland

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s the only film in this category that appears among the 2023 nominees for Best Picture, indicating its massive appeal to the entirety of the Academy. Winning this category is a mathematical certainty.

Should Win: Decision to Leave. Oops, my mistake. Park Chan-wook’s brilliant crime noir wasn’t even nominated. Among these nominees, All Quiet deserves the trophy.

Best Animated Feature

GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO — Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley

MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON — Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey

PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH — Joel Crawford and Mark Swift

THE SEA BEAST — Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger

TURNING RED — Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio. This dark take on the popular Disney fairy tale might be the most visually striking film of 2022. With its lush production design and painstaking stop-motion animation, it’s a visual wonder. It’s sense of melancholy may be lost on children (as well it should be). I wasn’t prepared for its heartfelt depth and serious meditation on aging and loss. It’s a moving masterpiece that deserved to be nominated for Best Picture.

Should Win: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best Supporting Actor

BRENDAN GLEESON — The Banshees of Inisherin

BRIAN TYREE HENRY — Causeway

JUDD HIRSCH — The Fabelmans

BARRY KEOGHAN — The Banshees of Inisherin

KE HUY QUAN — Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan from Everything Everywhere All at Once. He’s the biggest lock of the night. Even the Vegas oddsmakers (yes, people bet on these things) have him as the runaway favorite. It’s a great performance and a touching comeback story. He’s also guaranteed to deliver one of the most heartfelt acceptance speeches of the evening. It’s not every night that a child actor (he was Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies) can thank the director who discovered him forty years ago during an awards show when they are both nominated for Oscars. Keep the tissues handy.

Should Win: I don’t mean to be a killjoy because I love Ke Huy Quan’s performance, and he seems like a genuinely lovely person. That said, my favorite supporting performance among this group of nominees is Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin. Doing a lot with a limited amount of time is the hallmark of a strong supporting performance. Keoghan gives the audience a fully-realized person with hopes, dreams and disappointments with only a handful of scenes to convey all those facets of his character. It’s an amazing piece of work from a brilliant young performer.

Best Supporting Actress

ANGELA BASSETT — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

HONG CHAU — The Whale

KERRY CONDON — The Banshees of Inisherin

JAMIE LEE CURTIS — Everything Everywhere All at Once

STEPHANIE HSU — Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. It’s a long overdue acknowledgment of a talented actress. It will also mark the first Oscar win for a performance in a Marvel film. I considered Bassett’s win an absolute lock until Jamie Lee Curtis shocked the house by walking away with the SAG for Best Supporting Actress. I honestly think if anyone unseats Bassett it will be Kerry Condon who was brilliant as the voice of reason among the feuding males in The Banshees of Inisherin.

Should Win: Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Hsu’s character and performance stuck with me for months after I saw EEAAO. She and Jamie Lee Curtis have the advantage of playing wacky, campy parts that let them chew the scenery in their film while Bassett is somewhat trapped in the strong, earnest mother role that we’ve seen so many times over the years. I think Hsu displays the most acting range and should (but won’t) take the prize.

Best Actress

CATE BLANCHETT — Tár

ANA DE ARMAS — Blonde

ANDREA RISEBOROUGH — To Leslie

MICHELLE WILLIAMS — The Fabelmans

MICHELLE YEOH — Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Cate Blanchett for Tár. I base my prediction on the actual group of voters involved. Blanchett is the premiere actress of her generation starring in a film about the world of classical music. It’s a combination made in Oscar Heaven. It’s Academy catnip. Just ask the creators and cast of Amadeus (1984). While EEAAO will dominate the evening overall, this will be the Academy’s nod to traditional Oscar fare.

Should Win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. She’s been an international action superstar for decades and becomes an “overnight” sensation in the United States thanks to this gonzo little action film. It’s the kind of success story Hollywood loves. Yeoh also has the poise, grace and manner of an old school movie star. She has that regal quality of a true leading lady. (Then again so does Blanchett.) So, here’s hoping my cynical critic’s brain is wrong, and the SAG voters are right. I just can’t help thinking that this may be the Academy’s sole acknowledgment of Tár.

Best Actor

AUSTIN BUTLER — Elvis

COLIN FARRELL — The Banshees of Inisherin

BRENDAN FRASER — The Whale

PAUL MESCAL — Aftersun

BILL NIGHY — Living

Will Win: Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin. This is a tight three-way race: Butler, Farrell and Fraser. It’s the newcomer (Butler) and the two nice guys. By all insider accounts, Farrell and Fraser are gentlemen’s gentlemen and beloved by their colleagues. So, they “fight” to a draw for the goodwill vote.

The Academy loves a good comeback story which puts a check mark on Fraser’s scorecard, and he picked up the SAG for Best Actor just before Oscar voting closed. The only negative for Fraser is he’s the best thing in a mediocre tearjerker. Ferrell, on the other hand, has been turning in solid work for years, proving that he’s much more than just a pretty face. He gave audiences three great performances in 2022 alone: After Yang, Banshees, and The Batman. His Banshees performance is more than awards-worthy, and his career resume puts him over the top.

Should Win: Colin Farrell.

Best Director

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN — Martin McDonagh

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

THE FABELMANS — Steven Spielberg

TÁR — Todd Field

TRIANGLE OF SADNESS — Ruben Östlund

Will Win: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. The Academy loves its sense of history. America’s best living filmmaker has two Oscars for Best Director, but he won them both in the 90’s. At the age of 76, and given the possibility that he will return to genre film-making after this autobiographical opus, it may be the last opportunity to recognize Spielberg’s excellence on the world stage for a film that’s classic Oscar material. On the flip side, the Daniels are first-time nominees in this category and may be pigeon-holed in the “Honored to Be Nominated” category. Since 1955, only six filmmakers have won the Oscar for directing their debut films. My gut tells me that 2023 will not give us the seventh.

Should Win: The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once. And they very well may pull it off. Everyone points to their Director’s Guild of America (DGA) win, but that’s a younger, hipper voting group than the Academy. The cynic in me wonders how many of the older Academy members even watched EEAAO? I can almost hear the phone calls to one another: What’s the deal with the hot dog fingers? I think the Daniels may simply be too cutting edge to win this award. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

Best Picture

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

ELVIS

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

THE FABELMANS

TÁR

TOP GUN: MAVERICK

TRIANGLE OF SADNESS

WOMEN TALKING

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once. I don’t think this film is the lock that everyone seems to think it is. Why? Because of the nature of a preferential ballot. EEAAO may be #1 on hundreds of ballots, but I think it’ll be in the bottom five choices on hundreds of other ballots cast by the Academy members who “just don’t get it.”. So, it does leave open the possibility that a strong runner-up (Banshees, All Quiet on the Western Front) that hits #2 or #3 on most ballots could unseat EEAAO for Best Picture. If EEAAO loses, it’ll be to Banshees.

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once.