Will Milwaukee Bucks’ Jevon Carter Decline Player Option This Offseason?

Jevon Carter has been a godsend for the Milwaukee Bucks. He’s exceeded every expectation and continues to prove his value, as Milwaukee chases their second NBA Championship in two years.

It was just over a year ago when Milwaukee acquired him. The Brooklyn Nets wanted to sign Goran Dragic and needed to create a roster spot to do so (with the Bucks signing of Dragic, the waiver has come full circle). They waived Carter as a result, clearing the way for him to sign with the Bucks two days later.

Carter, playing on a contract that only went through the end of the season, appeared in 20 games for the Bucks in 2021-22. He showed off an ability to space the floor, and knocked down a whopping 55.8 percent of his three-point attempts. This was a welcomed addition to the typical tenacious defense he’s known for.

With George Hill struggling with injuries, Carter earned the backup point guard spot and held it down through the first-round of the playoffs. He was an injection of intensity and quality play off the bench, allowing Milwaukee to ensure they always had a defensive specialist on the court at the point guard position.

Then came the second round.

Hill returned from injury following Game 2 against the Boston Celtics and head coach Mike Budenholzer inexplicably inserted him into the backup point guard role. Carter was relegated to the bench and didn’t have a real role the rest of the series.

With Carter entering free agency last summer, many Bucks’ fans hoped he would forgive Budenholzer’s lapse in judgment and return to reclaim the role he rightfully earned. Carter did just that, signing a two-year deal worth $4.33 million that included a player option in Year 2.

That’s turning out to be a steal for the Bucks, as Carter picked up where he left off last season and has improved in many areas. He still brings the same determined defense, but has added to his shot repertoire.

In 64 games for the Bucks this season (including 33 starts), he’s averaging 7.8 points per game on a 55.2 percent effective field goal percentage—both career-highs. He’s shown a little penchant for creating his own looks, owning a semi-dangerous pull-up three-pointer that he has no issue unleashing in transition.

His confidence is at an all-time high, leading to questions about his offseason contract.

Carter’s 2023-24 player option is worth a measly $2.23 million. That was basically an insurance policy for him (and a Horst special) in the case of an awful season or a serious injury that hampered his output. He should be able to command more money on the open market or from the Bucks if he opts out.

At the very high end of the comparison scale is Monte Morris and Gary Payton II. Morris signed a three-year $27.8 million deal in 2021 and will earn $9.8 million next year. Payton will make $8.7 million next season. That would be best-case scenario for Carter and would likely require a deep postseason run where he continues to build upon his breakout campaign. Teams love to pay proven playoff performers coming off deep playoff appearances.

A better comparison might be Ricky Rubio, Cameron Payne and Patty Mills. Each player signed a multi-year deal that will see them earn between $6-6.8 million in 2023-24. Carter will certainly try to convince teams he deserves to be on that pay level based on his play in Milwaukee.

The free agent market will also be worth monitoring for Carter. Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet and D’Angelo Russell represent the top of the free agent class. The class falls off a cliff at the point guard position after that.

The Bucks will have early bird rights on Carter since he has played for them in each of the past two seasons. This will allow them to re-sign him to a deal for at least two seasons and worth up to $11.34 million in 2023-24. That should give them the flexibility to bring him back at any of the previous price points we covered if they so desire.

The decision to bring him back, if he opts out, won’t be solely based on Carter’s play and financial situation. Khris Middleton also has a player option, while Brook Lopez and Jae Crowder are unrestricted free agents. The Bucks are already paying $75.5 million in luxury tax payments this year and could see that number skyrocket even higher in the immediate future.

With all the moving pieces, Carter’s return is extremely complex. Carter must make his decision by June 29th, 2023 and that will set off a domino effect that will impact the Bucks’ 2023-24 title chances.