Topline
Voters in Wisconsin are going to the polls Tuesday to determine who should hold a seat on the state’s Supreme Court, a race that’s become the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history due to its potential implications on abortion’s legality in the state and voting rights—including, potentially, who wins the battleground state in 2024.
Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates Dan Kelly (right) and Janet Protasiewicz participate in a debate … [+]
Key Facts
Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz, a liberal-leaning judge and former prosecutor, is facing off against the conservative-leaning Daniel Kelly, a former Supreme Court justice in the state who was voted out of office in 2020.
Though officially nonpartisan, the race will determine the ideological balance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which now has a 4-3 conservative majority, with one of the conservative justices now retiring.
The race is likely to determine whether abortion will be legal in Wisconsin, as it’s now blocked under a 19th century-era ban that Democratic state leaders are challenging in court, a lawsuit that’s likely to reach the justices—and Protasiewicz has signaled she would rule in favor of dismantling the abortion restrictions.
A Democratic majority could also help overhaul the state’s legislative and congressional maps—which the Brennan Center for Justice notes have the most extreme partisan bias of any court-imposed map in at least 20 years—which, if overhauled, give Democrats a shot at flipping at least two seats in the House, Wisconsin Democratic Party chair told Roll Call.
The Supreme Court will also likely weigh in on voting rules ahead of the 2024 election, which could have a major impact on the presidential race, given Wisconsin’s status as a battleground state, as well as the balance of the Senate, as Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) faces reelection.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court could also be asked to hear any post-election challenges to the results following the 2024 race, as the Trump campaign brought in 2020, which a Democratic majority would further thwart—though even under the court’s 4-3 conservative tilt, the court still rejected those cases in 2020.
What To Watch For
Polls will close at 8:00 p.m. Tuesday, and the race is expected to be close, so it’s still hard to say when the race will be called. Turnout for the election is expected to be high and potentially record-breaking, with Politico reporting more than 410,000 people had already voted as of Monday morning, even as spring races traditionally get lower turnout. The winner of the election will be seated for a 10-year term.
Big Number
More than $45 million. That’s how much had been spent on the race as of Thursday, according to WisPolitics, as candidates have had funds pouring in from political parties and outside groups, with Protasiewicz raising $24.4 million and Kelly raising $19.2 million. The race is now the most expensive judicial election in American history, shattering a previous record of $15 million spent in an Illinois race in 2004, according to the Guardian. Protasiewicz has said she will recuse herself from hearing cases brought by the Democratic Party if elected (though not other parties who may be aligned with it), after the party donated more than $8.8 million to her campaign.
Key Background
Protasiewicz and Kelly advanced to the general election following a primary in February, in which Protasiewicz captured 46.5% of the vote and Kelly 24.2%, as GOP voters split their votes more between him and other Republican challenger Jennifer Dorow (21.8%). The race has been hotly contentious, with Kelly accusing Protasiewicz of “[lying] & slander[ing] the good name my father left me,” while Republicans have accused Protasiewicz of being overly political in her support for abortion rights. The race comes as state courts have become increasingly important in the battle over abortion rights, after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, abolishing the federal right to an abortion. Abortion rights advocates have turned to state courts as a result in an effort to have abortion bans overturned under state Constitutions, which has so far resulted in seven states’ bans being blocked in court.
Further Reading
Here’s everything you need to know about Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race, the candidates and what’s at stake (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel)
Costly Court Race Points to a Politicized Future for Judicial Elections (New York Times)
What’s at Stake in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Election (Brennan Center for Justice)
Ripples from Wisconsin Supreme Court battle could reach the Hill (Roll Call)
In a supreme court race like no other, Wisconsin’s political future is up for grabs (NPR)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/04/04/wisconsin-supreme-court-election-why-you-should-watch-the-most-expensive-judicial-race-in-us-history/