Why Xavier Tillman Should Be A Target For The Chicago Bulls

According to Artūras Karnišovas, the Bulls are looking to add shooting and rim protection this summer.

Fortunately for the Bulls, plenty of players offer those skills. Unfortunately, however, is that most offer them independent of each other. And as we saw with both Duncan Robinson and Matisse Thybulle in the playoffs, specialty players are quickly becoming something of the past.

So what if Chicago could find someone who projects as being able to do both? They needn’t look further than Memphis where Xavier Tillman is currently hanging out.

The fit

One might look at Tillman’s shooting this year and sink their eyebrows, given that he hit just 20.4% from behind the three-point line, and 45.4% overall. Those are not good percentages, but context is important here.

Firstly, Tillman saw his role reduced in his second season. He played just 13.2 minutes per game, compared to 18.4 minutes in his rookie campaign. That led to inconsistent production, as he often didn’t have enough floor time to catch a rhythm. In fact, in 11 of his 53 games played, he didn’t even crack the six-minute barrier. It got to the point where Tillman would come in and immediately jack up shots, not knowing how long he had out there.

Secondly, his volume decreased. Tillman took just 49 three-point shots this season, making 10. When debating efficiency on low volume, it’s important to remember how much a percentage can swing on just a few makes. For example, had Tillman made just five of the shots he missed, he would have sat at a near 31% on the year from long range. As such, it’s not worth putting too much stock in poor percentages when a player isn’t offering higher volume.

In Chicago, Tillman would get the minutes and the volume. He’d slide in immediately as the backup to Patrick Williams at the power forward position. When given consistent minutes, like in his rookie season, Tillman played a lot better, converting over 55% of his shot attempts, and canning over 33% of his three-pointers, albeit on just 65 attempts.

He also operated well in the short-roll, finding corner shooters and converting on floaters and push shots, opportunities he saw significantly less of this year. Assuming the Bulls make use of him as a passer – which they should – Tillman is as reliable as any big man playmaker as you can hope for in a backup. He has gathered 137 career assists to just 79 turnovers, and his reads have been solid throughout. He doesn’t just pass the ball around on the perimeter, he actively seeks to get into the middle of the paint, where he can make decisions.

Standing 6’9 with a 7’2 wingspan and a fairly large 260-pound frame, Tillman can also slide up the five spot and use his physicality. While not an outright shot-blocker (48 blocks in 112 career games), Tillman is sturdy, agile, and understands how to optimally position himself on that end of the floor. He’s a quick study who identifies patterns and reacts well rotation-wise. He’s the type of player who has a positive footprint on his team’s defense, and who projects to improve even further as he develops.

The deal

There are a few ways to get Tillman into the fold, as he’s only making $1.7 million. Aligning value will be the tricky issue.

The Bulls could offer Marko Simonović and two future second round selections, hoping that would be enough for the Grizzlies to accept. That’s probably an optimistic swing, however, but an offer worth opening with.

They could also offer the Grizzlies something of need, a spot-up shooter, by putting Coby White on the negotiating table. The Grizzlies have a path towards cap space, and could absorb the difference in compensation, as White is earning $7.4 million.

A deal centered around White and Tillman would allow the Bulls to ask for Minnesota’s 2023 second-round pick, currently owned by Memphis, to better align value. White, after all, is more proven and is coming off a year with enough minutes to get an idea of what to expect from him. In that sense, Tillman is a bigger question mark.

Moving Tillman for White also frees up more minutes for Brandon Clarke, a player Memphis will need to find extra playing time for. He’s simply too good to not play a consistent 25 minutes per game.

Overall, it’s fair to wonder if Tillman will offer the Bulls everything they need. This season simply didn’t leave anyone with a good taste in their mouths. However, it’s a trade with substantial upside if the shooting comes around. Not only would the Bulls upgrade their interior defense, they’d get playmaking, shot-making, and a two-way presence in their rotation. If the three-point shot comes around, which is the biggest swing skill for the 23-year-old, Chicago would have an all-around player coming in off the bench to plug holes at two positions.

That’s worth gambling on.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.