Why Top Seeds Are Losing Early?

Wimbledon’s top seeds are disappearing faster than a fresh bowl of strawberries and cream. Thirty-six seeds — 19 men and 17 women — are out at Wimbledon in the first two rounds. Thirteen of the men’s Top 32 seeded players were gone by the first round. Yesterday, Marin Cilic upset No. 4 Jack Draper 4-6 3-6 6-1 4-6, to reach the third round.

“Carnage,” is what 2009 Wimbledon finalist Andy Roddick called the first two rounds.

Eight Top 10 seeded players — men’s and women’s — were out in the first round. That’s an Open Era record.

Aryna Sabalenka, No. 1 seed, is the only Top 5 seed left in the women’s draw. Gauff, Jessica Pegula, Qinwen Zheng, and Jasmine Paolini, seeds 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively, were gone before the end of the second round.

Gauff and Pegula, the highest-ranked Americans, made history for the wrong reasons. It marked the first time in the Open Era that two of the top three seeds in the women’s draw lost in the first round.

Why are so many top seeds losing so early at Wimbledon this year? Seeded players chalked up their losses to parity, a lack of grass-court preparation, or a mental lapse. The result is a wide-open Wimbledon on the women’s side and some tremendous opportunities for those left in the men’s draw.

Parity Leads To More Wimbledon Seeds Falling

One reason more Wimbledon seeds are falling is increased parity in tennis. The game has expanded. More countries produce top players and looks nothing like the sport did 50 years ago when it was nearly exclusive to Americans, Europeans and Australians. Yesterday, Zeynep Sonmez became the first Turkish player to reach the third round at Wimbledon.

“I mean, grass is a tricky surface. The game is getting much deeper. You have to think, not so long ago Cam (Norrie) made the semifinals here, and now I’m playing him the second round,” said Frances Tiafoe in his post-match press conference. “You have floaters like that, and then you have some young guys playing well. The game is just really tough. It’s not like how it used to be where you can kind of, I mean, quote, unquote, get to your seedings (spot) easier.”

Tennis legend Chris Evert said that when she was playing, if you were a top player, you cruised to the second week of Grand Slams. Evert reached the semifinals or better in 52 of 56 Grand Slam tournaments she competed in. Two of her four losses came in the quarterfinals and two in the third round.

“I mean, my era was 40, 50, years ago, and to me, I think it’s more difficult nowadays, because there’s simply more depth and thousands and thousands and thousands of more professional tennis players,” Evert said in an online press conference. “There weren’t 50 countries playing tennis. Nowadays, tennis has gotten so big that tennis is the number one (sport) in a lot of these smaller countries and a lot of the European countries.”

Evert also said players train harder now, and someone ranked outside the top 100 is as fit as players in the Top 10.

“They train like Olympic athletes. Back 40, 50, years ago, we trained like tennis players, and nowadays they train like Olympic athletes,” she said.

John McEnroe agreed and added that the game’s pace is faster than when the Big Three — Roger Federer, Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal — dominated.

“And you can make an argument that what we’re seeing now is even faster and different than what we saw even five years ago,” he said.

Taylor Fritz, the highest ranked American male, had to survive two five-setters against young players, both 6’8″ who consistently serve above 140 mph. Djokovic’s fastest serve in his career was 136 mph. Fritz’s first opponent, Giovanni Mphetshi Perricard, 21, hit one serve 153 mph, a Wimbledon record. Gabriel Diallo, 23, Fritz’s second round opponent, hit 26 aces. Neither Mphetshi Perricard or Diallo was seeded.

Globalization Of Tennis Training Creates More Parity

Another reason for upsets is the globalization of training, where players from all over the world live and train at top tennis academies in Florida, France and Spain. International players coming from a few top schools creates almost a standardized development process.

Tennis academies aren’t new. The Nick Bollettieri Tennis Academy (now IMG Academy) trained produced Maria Sharapova, Andre Agassi and Kei Nishikori trained there as kids. However, access to international development has expanded. More players are arriving on tour with technically-sound strokes.

The IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, the Mouratoglou Academy in France, the Sanchez-Casel Academy and Rafael Nadal Academy in Spain, attract players from all over the world. Some go right into the pros. Others head to the US to play in college, where 61 percent of NCAA tennis players are none-US citizens.

Norrie (Great Britain), Lulu Sun (New Zealand), Oliver Tarvet (Great Britain), Arthur Rinderknech (France), Jacob Fearnley (Great Britain), Diallo (Canada), Rinky Hijikata (Australia), and Diana Shnaider (Russia) were among the 35 players in the Wimbledon main draw with NCAA experience.

Wimbledon Seeds Difficult Transition From Clay To Grass

After winning the French Open, Gauff headed back to the US. She made appearances on all the morning shows. She popped up on the Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon, at the New York Liberty’s game and. Meanwhile, other players, including Dayana Yastremska who upset Gauff in the first round, were on the grass playing warmup tournaments. Yastremska entered Wimbledon 6-2 on grass. Gauff was 0-1.

After her loss Gauff second-guessed her preparation and said she might do things different in the future.

“I couldn’t find my footing out there today,” Gauff said after the loss.

Players like Gauff, who can slide into points on the clay, lose that advantage on grass, a faster surface. The clay take some of the heat off a big serve. But on grass, big servers are dangerous.

Players transition from hard courts as early as April and have nearly two months to prepare for the French Open. They have an array of clay court tournaments to chose from, including 1,000-level events which draws top players and has a Slam-like atmosphere.

Between the French Open and Wimbledon players have only three weeks and there are no 1,000 level tournaments. So competition is dispersed throughout Europe.

Top players play more matches, reaching the latter rounds more often. Fatigue sets in and they are most vulnerable in the early rounds before they can relax into a rhythm. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz had to survive a five-setter in the first round against Fabio Fognini, a man heading into retirement.

Whatever the reason for this historic number of top seeds losing, one player’s upset means opportunity for another. Players like Fritz and Elina Svitolina, who are seeking their first Grand Slam title or Ben Shelton hoping to become the first American man to win Wimbledon since 2000, have a clearer path to the finals.

However, the favorites at Wimbledon, also top seeds, Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Alcaraz, Jannick Sinner and Djokovic remain in the tournament, awaiting a chance to leave more carnage on the court.