Why The Sixers Should—And Shouldn’t—Go All-In On A Kevin Durant Trade

While most of the NBA is currently on vacation, the Philadelphia 76ers are reportedly pondering a franchise-changing decision.

“As of earlier this week, there were high-ranking members of the Sixers who’ve felt strongly” about discussing a potential Kevin Durant trade with the Brooklyn Nets, SNY’s Ian Begley reported Wednesday. Durant originally requested a trade from the Nets on June 30, and he reiterated that trade request over the weekend in a meeting with team governor Joe Tsai, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.

The interest between the Sixers and Durant appears mutual. Begley said he views them as a “welcome landing spot,” while Frank Isola of the New York Dai
DAI
ly News added that Durant would like to reunite with James Harden, his former teammate both on the Nets and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Most of Durant’s other suitors—the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans, among others—can cobble together a variety of packages to tempt the Nets into trading him. However, the Sixers are limited in what they can offer, which might make a Durant trade a long shot.

They already owe their unprotected 2023 first-round pick and top-eight-protected 2027 first-round pick to the Nets from the trade that landed them Harden back in February, and they owe a top-six-protected 2025 first-rounder to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Since the Stepien Rule prevents teams from being left without a first-round pick in consecutive drafts, the Sixers can’t trade their 2024, 2026 or 2028 first-rounder without acquiring another pick in those drafts.

Teams also aren’t allowed to trade picks more than seven years into the future, which means the latest pick that the Sixers can offer this year is their 2029 first-rounder. However, since the 2025 and 2027 picks might not convey in those respective years, they can’t offer a fully unprotected 2029 first-round pick without removing the protections on the two earlier ones. Instead, they’d have to make it a conditional first-rounder that turns into a second-round pick if it doesn’t convey in 2029.

The meat of the Sixers’ offer would thus be Tyrese Maxey (their lone blue-chip prospect), Tobias Harris (the requisite salary filler) and some combination of Matisse Thybulle and/or their other young players (Jaden Springer, Paul Reed, Charles Bassey, Isaiah Joe). If the Nets are amenable to such a framework, the Sixers have to weigh whether the short-term upside outweighs the long-term risks.

Why They Should Go After KD

As of now, the Sixers are tied with the Nets for the sixth-best odds (+1500) to win the 2022-23 NBA title, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. They’re trailing only the Boston Celtics (+450), Milwaukee Bucks (+550), Golden State Warriors (+650), Los Angeles Clippers (+700) and Phoenix Suns (+1000).

If the Sixers did trade a package of Maxey, Harris and Thybulle for Durant, they’d likely vault into the Boston and Milwaukee tier of title favorites.

Even after trading that trio, the Sixers would be left with a starting lineup of Harden, De’Anthony Melton, Durant, P.J. Tucker and Joel Embiid. Their depth would take a hit, but they would still have Danuel House Jr., Shake Milton, Furkan Korkmaz, Georges Niang and Reed available off the bench. They’d also have enough space under the luxury-tax apron to round out their roster with a few veteran-minimum signings, and they’d likely become a premium destination for veteran ring-chasers.

The combination of Durant, Harden and Embiid might push defenses to their breaking point. Embiid commands constant double-teams, but that would leave both Durant and Harden to feast on single coverage. Opponents couldn’t cheat off Melton (38.8 percent from deep over his past two seasons) or Tucker (38.5 percent from three over that same span) if they were spotting up along the perimeter, either.

Durant is perhaps the single most malleable superstar in the NBA. At 6’10” with a 7’5″ wingspan, he can get his shot off against nearly anyone, but he’s also fresh off a season in which he averaged a career-high 6.4 assists per game. Pair that with Harden’s passing ability and Embiid’s dominance down low, and the Sixers might have an unsolvable riddle on offense.

Does the upside of that trio justify giving up on Maxey, a 21-year-old rising star with an insatiable work ethic? Perhaps. Harden turns 33 later this month, while Embiid is firmly in his prime at the age of 28. The Sixers might not have the luxury of waiting for Maxey’s development, even though he went from averaging 8.0 points in limited minutes as a rookie to 17.5 points on 48.5 percent shooting as a full-time starter last year.

The Sixers would shorten their championship window by trading Maxey in a package for Durant, but doing so could significantly increase their short-term title odds.

Why They Shouldn’t Go After KD

If the Sixers trade for Durant and don’t win a title, they’ll be condemning themselves to a potentially bleak future.

Durant turns 34 at the end of September, and he’s played only 90 regular-season games over the past three years combined. He also missed the entire 2019-20 campaign after suffering a torn Achilles during the 2019 NBA Finals.

Since making his return, Durant has shown no ill effects from that Achilles injury. He averaged 28.7 points on 52.5 percent shooting, 7.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists over the past two seasons, and he put up a career-high 34.4 points on 51.4 percent shooting and 9.3 rebounds during the 2020-21 postseason.

Durant put a 49-point, 17-rebound, 10-assist triple-double without resting for a single second in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks, and he was one shoe size away from hitting a series-ending three-pointer in Game 7. However, he later said that enormous workload left him “gassed.”

“It came to a point where like I didn’t know where I was one time,” he said on the Old Man and the Three podcast. “I was running back downcourt, and I was just such in a daze.”

The Sixers shouldn’t have to tax Durant to that extent, as Embiid and Harden would help shoulder the scoring workload. Then again, both have their own health concerns. Harden has been battling a nagging hamstring injury since the 2021 playoffs, while Embiid has yet to play 70 or more games in any of his six healthy seasons.

The two-way upside of the Sixers’ starting lineup with Durant would be undeniable, but their lack of reliable depth on the bench could prove problematic. If any of Durant, Embiid or Harden suffered a major injury, the Sixers might be too thin to withstand their absence.

The bigger issue would be their long-term outlook. There’s no telling how many more years that the soon-to-be 34-year-old Durant and soon-to-be 33-year-old Harden will remain All-Star-caliber players. Once they begin their inevitable decline, the Sixers would likely be left with Embiid and little else.

Unless the Sixers found another Maxey-caliber prospect with one of their few remaining first-round picks, Embiid might look around in a few years and realize that his championship window had slammed shut in Philadelphia. At that point, it might behoove both he and the Sixers to pursue a trade, allowing him to chase a ring elsewhere and helping the Sixers replenish their depleted youth pipeline.

Would acquiring Durant justify the likelihood of needing to trade Embiid down the road? That largely depends on how many championships the Sixers win over the next few years.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.