Why The Miami Heat Will Not Win Game 7 Over The Boston Celtics

Stick a fork in them — the Miami Heat are done.

Following their excruciating 104-103 last-second Game 6 loss to the Boston Celtics, one thing is for certain — the Heat aren’t coming back to win Game 7 at TD Garden. The Heat will be faced with the unenviable task of closing out the Celtics after leading the Eastern Conference Finals 3-0.

At this point, it appears clear that Miami is about to become the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead in the playoffs.

For the first 43 minutes, the Celtics absolutely outplayed the Heat for a third consecutive game and showed why they’re the No. 2 seed with home-court advantage. Miami couldn’t convert on any shots in the paint and Boston’s star duo, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown vastly outplayed the Heat’s star pair, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

However, the Heat were brought back to life over the course of the ensuing five minutes. After trailing 98-88 with 4:56 remaining, Miami went on a 15-4 run to take the lead with just three seconds left in the game.

And then Derrick White happened.

As Marcus Smart missed a game-winning three-point attempt with one second remaining, White — the in-bounder on the play — managed to cut to the rim without being boxed out as he tipped in the game-winner before time expired.

“Derrick White, like a flash of lightning, just came out of nowhere and saved the day, man,” Brown said following the game. “An incredible play.”

To put into context just how historic the shot was — as if potentially overcoming a 3-0 series deficit isn’t historic enough — White’s game-winning shot at the buzzer is just the second in NBA history with his team trailing and facing elimination.

“I was just happy,” White said. “Season was on the line. We don’t want to go home.”

Except the Celtics will go home for a winner-take-all Game 7. While the Heat are technically still alive, they might as well be dead entering Monday’s matchup.

Outside of the idea that this was essentially the Heat’s Game 7 considering it’s their last home game of the series, it’s become clear as this series has wore on who the better team really is.

The Celtics are longer, more athletic and just better than the Heat. After struggling to contain Butler over the first three games of the series — he averaged 26.0 points and 3.7 steals per game on 46.0% shooting — they’ve made him hesitant in shooting the ball and have basically shut him down.

After converting on just 5-of-21 shots (23.8%) in Game 6, Butler has now averaged just 22.3 points and 1.3 steals per game on a disastrous shooting clip of 36.5% during the Heat’s three losses.

“I told the guys on the bench, I told the guys in the locker room that ‘If I play better, we’re not even in this position.’ Honestly speaking. And I will be better,” Butler said after the loss. “And that’s what makes me smile, because those guys follow my lead, so when I’m playing better, I think we’re playing better as a whole.”

For all of the flack that Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla received after Game 3 for being inexperienced and out-coached by Erik Spoelstra, he’s bounced back in a major way. Boston’s defensive adjustments since Game 4 — which include doubling Butler anytime he gets close to the paint and not biting on any of his pump fakes — have neutralized his scoring and aggressiveness.

Furthermore, the Celtics are switching on picks with precision and attacking the Heat’s ball-handlers before they can get any open shots.

It’s a big reason why Butler has been slowed down and why Adebayo — who usually does his scoring damage off of screens — has been negated offensively, going 4-of-16 from the field for just 11 points in Game 6. Over the past three losses, Adebayo has averaged just 12.3 points per game after averaging 18.3 points during the Heat’s wins. A large reason for that is the Celtics are simply making Adebayo beat them from posting up, which just so happens to be lacking in his game.

Meanwhile, while Gabe Vincent made a positive impact just by returning to the Heat lineup and forcing Kyle Lowry back to the bench, he was also affected by Miami’s lack of ability to get easy shots due to Boston’s tenacious defense, going 6-for-18 from the field.

The Heat came out to play in Game 6. They avoided the Celtics blitzing them early on as they had over the past two games, cut their turnovers down to just five — they had posted 16 turnovers in each of the past two losses — and shut Boston down from beyond the arc, as the Celtics converted on just 7-of-35 attempts (20%) from the 3-point line. And despite their ineffective shooting from the paint, Miami excelled from beyond the arc, converting on 14-of-30 attempts (46.7%).

And it still wasn’t enough.

If the Heat couldn’t beat the Celtics with all of those things going their way at home, what makes you think they’re going to do in Boston?

Let’s face it — the Celtics are a better team than the Heat. They’ve made the proper adjustments, have prevented Butler from going “playoff Jimmy,” and have exposed Adebayo’s weaknesses as a post-up big man.

Mazzulla explained how the Celtics have managed to overcome a 3-0 series deficit to put themselves on the brink of history.

“Faith. Love. Togetherness. Physicality. Belief. Hope.” Mazzulla said. “All those things combined. It starts with the locker room. Those guys had a choice to make and they chose to believe in each other.”

Barring a herculean effort from Butler in Game 7, the Heat don’t have a chance at winning Game 7 at the TD Garden.

The Heat have had several opportunities to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals and they’ve blown it each time.

While they technically have one more shot, it’s all but over — the Celtics will make history in Game 7 on Memorial Day.