Why The Houston Rockets Shouldn’t Want To Reunite With James Harden

If the Philadelphia 76ers go belly-up in the playoffs again, James Harden might be open to a reunion with the Houston Rockets, according to multiple reports.

On Christmas Day, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported “Harden and his inner circle” had been “openly weighing Houston in recent months.” Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports made it sound as though off-court factors were influencing Harden’s reported interest in Houston perhaps even more than the on-court product.

“By all accounts, the city of Houston and his foothold in the Rockets organization are something Harden missed the moment he left the franchise,” Fischer reported. “It’s where he morphed from Sixth Man of the Year to Most Valuable Player and one of the most recognizable athletes in America. The Rockets were his franchise and Houston was his domain.”

Regardless of what’s driving Harden’s reported desire to return to Houston, the feeling should not be mutual. The rebuilding Rockets should be focused more on the future rather than a blast from the past, even if it’s a franchise icon like Harden.

When Harden arrived in Houston ahead of the 2012-13 season, he immediately transformed into a superstar. He made the All-Star game in each of his eight full seasons in Houston, and he led the league in scoring in three straight seasons from 2017-18 through 2019-20. He also led the league in assists in 2016-17, one year before his MVP campaign.

Harden’s Rockets were one of the few Western Conference teams to put a legitimate scare into the dynastic Golden State Warriors during the mid-to-late 2010s. Had Chris Paul not suffered a hamstring injury at the end of Game 5 of the 2018 Western Conference Semifinals, the Rockets might have been facing LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals that year rather than the Warriors.

However, Harden is no longer the dynamic, do-it-all scorer that he was in his prime.

“Since we got him, everybody expected the Houston James Harden,” Embiid told reporters after the Sixers’ loss in last year’s Eastern Conference Semifinals. “But that’s not who he is anymore. He’s more of a playmaker.”

Harden averaged at least 30 points and 20 shots per game in each of his final three full seasons in Houston, but he’s been below 25 points and 17 shots per game in each of the past three (including this year). However, he’s had at least 10 assists per game in all three of the most recent seasons. He’s tying his career high with 11.2 dimes per game this year.

“This is a generational scorer that has taken [to] and decided to be a point guard,” Sixers head coach Doc Rivers recently told reporters. “And that’s hard to do. … Most people can’t do that, or will not do it is a better way of saying it. And the fact that he is willingly doing it, running the team, organizing us, it’s huge for us.”

Having a table-setter like Harden might appeal to the Rockets as they seek to move beyond their ongoing rebuild and return to playoff contention. But signing him would be a short-term Band-Aid that might end up hurting their long-term chances of building a championship contender.

The Rockets are still in the early stages of the rebuild that began when Harden requested a trade ahead of the 2020-21 season. They’ve added two high lottery picks since then—Jalen Green (No. 2 in 2021) and Jabari Smith Jr. (No. 3 in 2022)—along with a few other promising first-rounders such as Alperen Şengün and Tari Eason. Other recent draft picks, including Usman Garuba (No. 23 in 2021), TyTy Washington Jr. (No. 29 in 2022) and Josh Christopher (No. 24 in 2021), are on the fringes of the rotation.

Harden would be a clear upgrade over 22-year-old combo guard Kevin Porter Jr., who signed a lightly guaranteed four-year, $63.4 million extension in mid-October. Perhaps the Rockets envision him setting up easy buckets for Green, Smith, Şengün and Eason, which should elevate their entire offense. Although it might be tempting to take a shortcut on their rebuild, the Rockets need to keep their long-term outlook in mind, too.

With so many players still on rookie contracts for the next few seasons, the Rockets should be swimming in salary-cap space this summer. In early December, Keith Smith of Spotrac projected them to lead the league with $59.3 million in cap room, while no other team was projected to have even $50 million.

Based on the current salary-cap projection of $134 million for next season, Harden’s maximum salary would be $46.9 million. The Rockets would be able to sign him and still have roughly $12.4 million to round out the rest of their roster. However, it’s fair to question whether signing him would be the best allocation of those resources.

Green, Şengün, Garuba and Christopher will become eligible to sign extensions after the 2023-24 season, while Smith, Eason and Washington will follow the year after. Those extensions would kick in ahead of the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons, respectively. That means the Rockets have the next two years to spend what cap space they have before the bill starts coming due for their young core.

The salary cap is poised to soar beginning in 2025-26 due to the NBA’s upcoming national TV contracts, which could help the Rockets offset the cost of paying their young stars. Still, they should be spending the next two offseasons looking for long-term complements to those players and signing them to the longest contracts possible.

The Atlanta Hawks did some variation of that strategy in 2020, when they signed Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari in free agency to complement Trae Young, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter and the rest of their young players. They wound up going on a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals that season, although turmoil has since consumed them.

The Hawks might also be a textbook example for the Rockets of how quickly contention windows open and close. While they could take advantage of their young core’s cheap rookie-scale contracts in 2020-21, they began shipping out pieces to pre-emptively avoid diving too deep into the luxury tax.

Prior to last year’s trade deadline they sent third-year wing Cam Reddish to the New York Knicks for a protected first-round pick to avoid paying his next contract. This past offseason, they traded Kevin Huerter—whom they signed to a four-year, $65 million extension in October 2021—to the Sacramento Kings for a protected first-round pick.

If the Rockets sign Harden to a long-term deal this offseason, they might be wasting their best avenue to add a long-term member of their core in free agency. Unless they’re convinced Harden could lead them to a championship in the next few years, they’d be better off targeting younger players at positions of need who could complement their stars. It might come at the expense of some short-term success, but it could better position them for a championship in the long run.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.