Why The Denver Nuggets’ Bench, Now Bottom Five In The NBA, May See Improvement Going Forward

The bad news: he Denver Nuggets have a bigtime bench problem.

The potentially good news: There are some promising reasons to believe that their second unit just might be able to turn the corner on what so far has been a mostly disappointing performance in the 2021-22 season.

As most people who have paid even marginal attention to reigning MVP Nikola Jokic’s season will likely know, the disparity between the Nuggets’ fortunes when Joker is on versus off the court is as wide as the Mile High City is high.

According to Cleaning the Glass, Denver has performed a mind-boggling 26.7 points per 100 possessions better with Nikola Jokic on the court as opposed to when he’s been off. Not only does he lead the league in on/off efficiency differential, but for context, the 8.1 gap between Jokic at plus-26.7 and Steph Curry in second at plus-18.1 is equal to the gap between Curry and Derrick Rose in 40th. Which is to say, Jokic’s lead in this category is absolutely staggering, as he towers over the rest of the league.

Moreover, Nuggets lineups featuring Nikola Jokic outscore their opponents by 10.2 points per 100 possessions on average, which is in the 94th percentile, and Denver’s current starting five of Monte Morris, Will Barton III, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green and Jokic have a net differential of plus-14.4, the second-best mark in the NBA among all lineups with at least 500 possessions. In short, just about any lineups including Jokic, and more specifically the starters, have essentially been dominant.

Contrast that with Denver’s lineups when Joker is off the court taking a breather, and that average net efficiency plummets to a downright awful minus-15.9 points per 100 possessions, which puts it in the third percentile. Simply put, the plus-10.2 Jokic lineups are performing meaningfully better than the best team in the league, the Phoenix Suns at plus-8.8, while the minus-15.9 non-Jokic (which is to say, bench) lineups are doing drastically worse than the lowest-ranked Detroit Pistons at minus 9.9.

In fact, among all benches in the league, the Nuggets currently have the fourth-lowest point differential per 100 possessions at minus-3.3, and have variably bounced around between there and absolute worst all season, never cracking even the bottom five, per NBA.com.

Signs Of Improvement?

Broken down by month-to-month or year-to-year splits, the picture looks a little brighter. Through the end of November, the Nuggets basically started off with the worst bench performance in the league, hands down. December saw some slight improvement, however, and in the 2022 calendar year, Denver’s reserve unit has actually just barely cracked into a positive net rating of plus-0.1, actually reaching the upper half of the rankings in January at 13th.

While some of this may be chalked up to the volatility of early-season stats stabilizing as the sample size of games this season has grown, simply not being the drastic negative that the Nuggets bench was in October and November is significant, especially considering that even a slightly-minus bench is likely to be offset considerably by the very-plus Nikola Jokic on-court minutes.

The Win Percentage And Bench Performance Correlation

The value of Denver’s bench outscoring opponent reserve units is plainly evident in how it corresponds with Nuggets’ winning or losing outcomes. While it may seem obvious that, of course, NBA teams are more likely to win if their bench performs better than the oppositions, and that correlation does not necessarily imply causation, the difference in the results when Denver wins the bench battle is notably pronounced.

Now 52 games into the season, the Nuggets have a .538 win percentage, with 28 wins and 24 losses. In those 52 games, When Denver’s bench has outperformed its opposing reserve unit, the Nuggets have been dominant, with a .750 record (15 and five). The problem is, they’ve managed to do so in just 20 games, or 38.5% of the total played. In the 32 remaining games (61.5% of the total), in which the Nuggets’ second unit has either been outscored by or tied with its counterpart, that win percentage drops to .406. In terms of the league standings, .750 would be an elite third in the NBA, while .406 would be a lottery team at 21st.

And even when the bar is lowered to games in which the Nuggets either won the bench, or lost it by no more than five points, that .750 win percentage slips only to .679, which is commensurate with a 55- or 56-win team, with the games where Denver’s reserves were outscored by six or more points resulting in a .375 record, only slightly lower than .406.

In short, all of this is to say that the Nuggets haven’t even needed to win their bench battles outright to perform at a very high level, but merely not to get pummeled by six or more points.

The question then becomes, how can Denver accomplish this more consistently down the final stretch of the season? Fortunately for the Nuggets, there are several reasons for optimism on this front.

The Likely Return Of Jamal Murray And Potential Return of Michael Porter Jr.

The Nuggets have badly missed two of their starters this season, but seems a near certainty that one will return, while the other is still more in doubt. Denver’s star point guard Jamal Murray has so far missed the entire season while rehabilitating the torn ACL he incurred last April, and Michael Porter Jr., after a rocky start to the season where he did not look to be quite himself, only played nine games before undergoing back surgery.

Murray’s recovery process appears to have been slightly delayed by his recent absence due to health and safety protocols, but it still seems probable he’ll get back to action with at least around a month remaining in the regular season schedule. And though he can’t be expected to immediately return to his old form, the domino effect of his return should be huge for Denver. Morris, who has commendably played the starting point guard spot all season, will return to his usual role as captain and floor general of Denver’s bench unit on Murray’s return. That simple fact alone should have a profound steadying effect on a bench unit which for various reasons has been wildly inconsistent. Just having 48 minutes of reliably competent post guard play raises the floor of the Nuggets’ bench (and the team as a whole) considerably.

And if Porter is able to make a comeback by the end of the season – which is far from guaranteed, but has not been ruled out – then (again, even if he will presumably not be 100%) Denver getting their best shooter back, opening up more and better options for Malone to stagger starters and bench players, and furthering that ripple effect down the depth chart, will almost inevitably give a major boost to their struggling bench.

Continued Improvement From Rookie Bones Hyland And Sophomore Zeke Nnaji

Bones Hyland has recently taken over backup point guard duties from Facu Campazzo, and while there have been some mixed results, they are leaning toward the positive side of the ledger, especially in terms of Denver’s floor spacing due to the rookie’s threat as a shooter. While Hyland may not have the veteran savvy playmaking or defensive skills of Campazzo, he is a competent passer who is also a three-level scorer, and his height and length alone go a long way in making up for what he lacks in Facu’s craftiness on the defensive end. He’s had a very up-and-down first season, in large part due to multiple injury and health and safety protocol absences, but he’s definitely trending upwards.

The progress Zeke Nnaji has made this season is visible and impactful, and he has clearly earned the trust of head coach Michael Malone in the form of earning a larger role. He has thrived at the backup power forward position as a floor-spacing big, and his rebounding and finishing around the rim have also seen marked improvement.

While a high degree of inconsistency is likely still in the cards for both youngsters, their rising developmental trajectories bode will for the improvement of Denver’s bench.

Mid-Season Acquisitions

Denver has had an abundance of guards who are either undersized, have struggled to shoot, or both. The addition of sharpshooter Bryn Forbes, landed in late January in a three-team trade that sent out P.J. Dozier, Bol Bol and a future second-round draft pick, directly addresses the Nuggets’ bench scoring woes. A career 41.2% three-point shooter who is also capable of scoring at the rim and from midrange, Forbes has made an immediate impact in punching up Denver’s overall shooting competency. In his nine games so far with the Nuggets, he’s shooting 39% from the arc on 4.6 attempts with 9.2 points per game and has already made an impact in some key moments.

Davon Reed, who Denver signed to three ten-day contracts before making him a more permanent roster fixture with a two-way deal, has likewise brought some hot (albeit lower-volume) shooting with a 47.9% three-point percentage, but more importantly, at six-foot-five, 208 pounds and a seven-foot wingspan, brings much-needed size, length and defensive toughness to the Nuggets’ guard and wing positions, which got much smaller overall with the losses of Murray and Porter.

Veteran center DeMarcus Cousins, now on his second ten-day contract, was also brought in by Denver to play backup center to Jokic. While it seems more likely at this point that he will ultimately prove to be more of a proof-of-concept experiment than a long-term addition due in part to his injury struggles, just having a true, big, center-sized center available to deploy for the Nuggets’ bench added a new and different dimension that has been available on the roster all season.

Even if Boogie doesn’t stick, what he has brough to the court for Denver in the four games he’s played with the team has been a convincing demonstration of the value of having a backup center for whom that is his true and natural position to hold things down for the bench around the rim.

And that brings us to the last point of optimism for Denver’s bench, one which is not yet resolved, but will be at least partly known by the February 10 trade deadline.

Potential Trade Deadline Or Buy-Out Additions

The Nuggets have reportedly been looking to bolster both their backup center and wing positions as the trade deadline approaches, looking to bolster both size and defensive capability.

Now just slightly under $1 million below the luxury tax threshold, and without a big arsenal of highly-valued potential trade targets that the league’s other teams might covet, one or more “big” moves seems fairly implausible, with Forbes more likely than not to end up as their most significant deadline deal).

But as Cousins’ minutes showed, even just having a big body down low who can be a presence and pull down some rebounds would probably be helpful. And simply having more size to put on the court at the wing could alleviate some of the defensive struggles Denver has faced when going up against bigger, taller opposing lineups.

And even if the Nuggets don’t make any further deadline moves, the Forbes trade opened a roster spot which allows them the flexibility to explore the buy-out market in ways that would have been more challenging when their roster was fully stocked at 17 players.

In any case, president of basketball operations Tim Connelly is always talking about the Nuggets being aggressive at the deadline, and whether or not anything falls into place in the next few days, he and Denver’s operations staff will surely be pursuing all available options.