Why Taty Castellanos Didn’t Fetch The $15 Million Fee NYCFC Wanted

On the surface, Valentin Castellanos seemed certain to become the next blockbuster MLS export.

A year removed from winning the 2021 MLS Golden Boot, the 23-year-old Argentine was on pace to become the first repeat winner. He already helped New York City FC to the 2021 MLS Cup, scoring four postseason goals in the process to prove his big game credentials. which he scored four accomplish the feat in back to back seasons. And when his move to newly promoted LaLiga side Girona became official Monday, he departed as MLS’ most in-form striker.

But Castellanos’ departs on a loan to the City Football Group sister club, not the $15 million transfer NYCFC was reportedly seeking. That means his European exit comes not as a statement of his value, but an opportunity to prove it. And on taking a closer look, you can understand why other European bidders might have balked.

To borrow a term from another sport with a round ball, Castellanos in MLS was sort of the soccer equivalent of basketball’s volume scorers.

Castellanos found himself in dangerous positions an awful lot in 2021 and 2022, and that’s certainly a skill that has value. According to StatsBomb, he led MLS both years in non-penalty expected goals, a measurement of how many goals a player is expected to score based on the quality of his shot attempts that are not penalty kicks.

But those numbers also show his role as penalty taker also significantly boosted his overall scoring totals. Remove penalty kicks, and Castellanos slid to tied for fifth in MLS goal scoring in 2021. So far in 2022, he would be only in a six-way tie for eighth when not accounting for goals from the spot.

It’s even less flattering when you look at how often Castellanos scored in non-penalty situations. He failed to exceed 0.5 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes in either campaign. He finished outside the top 10 of MLS in that category in both years. And his 23 non-penalty goals across those campaigns fell well short of expected goals projections in the neighborhood of 29.

City could thrive with those numbers because of the volume of chances Castellanos played a role in finding. At $15 million, most potential European suitors probably couldn’t. If they’re teams from Europe’s top five leagues shopping for a striker at that price point, they’re likely aiming for a top-half finish at best and not title contention. They don’t expect to dominate play often enough for Castellanos’ volume of chances to be worth his inefficiency.

Then there’s the matter of NYCFC’s obvious significant home field advantage at Yankee Stadium and its unusually small pitch. Opponents have always claimed the tight confines give City an unusual edge. And the past two seasons give more credibility to those claims, since pandemic-related scheduling conflicts have forced City to play some of their “home” games at other venues.

In 18 home fixtures in The Bronx since the start of the 2021 season, NYCFC have posted a +38 goal differential, or +2.11 per match. In 11 home fixtures elsewhere, City’s goal differential sinks to +5, or +0.45 per match.

And that shows up in Castellanos’ numbers. City have played only about 33% of their 55 regular season games in 2021 and 2022 at Yankee Stadium. Castellanos has scored about 65% (15 of 23) of his non-penalty goals there.

In short, potential buyers probably need to see what Castellanos looks like playing in conditions that are a little less unique. He’ll get that chance at Girona, where he’ll also be stepping up in class at one Europe’s top divisions. And his underwhelming analytic numbers don’t mean he’s bound to be a bust.

Castellanos’ athleticism and versatility to be able to play any of the front three positions may actually be more valuable in Spain than in MLS, where City mostly needed goals.

But his status as the defending and potential repeat Golden Boot winner may have convinced NYCFC they could elevate his price beyond his worth. It’s understandable that other clubs didn’t bite.