Why Spending $90 Million On Centers Is A Problem For The Wolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves re-signed center Naz Reid to a three-year contract worth $42 million on Sunday, keeping in the fold one of the most intriguing big man free agents of the 2023 summer.

Reid, an offensive powerhouse who averaged 11.5 points in just 18.4 minutes this season, is just 23 years old and has refined his game every single season after joining the Wolves in 2019. He was expected to command a significant portion of attention this July, but the Wolves made sure to keep him in-house.

However, this raises a few questions moving forward.

With Reid estimated to earn $12.9 million next season, the Wolves will be paying roughly $90 million for him, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert – all centers.

That is nothing short of an enormous investment in one position, especially considering how the Wolves need upgrades at both the wing, and at point guard.

Furthermore, this upcoming season marks the last year for Anthony Edwards on his rookie scale contract. Odds are good he will sign an maximum extension before the start of the season, meaning the Wolves have little way of upgrading the roster next season, assuming they hang onto their high-earners.

To make life even more complicated, Towns will see a major salary increase in July of 2024 when his contract jumps from $36 million to an estimated $52.3 million.

With so many centers on hand, it seems likely one – or two – of Towns, Gobert, and Reid, will not be on the roster by 2024.

Reid, for all we know, could become a trade asset going into the 2024 summer, as he’d have two years left on his deal at a cost that most teams would consider a bargain.

What we don’t yet know is whether the Wolves plan to keep both Towns and Gobert, while trying to change the former into more of a free-roaming power forward. This was the attempt this season, but Towns played just 29 games, so there isn’t a lot of data on him as a forward yet.

If the plan is to hang onto all three, it seems the Wolves are fairly optimistic about their spending pattern. Dedicating over half of the salary cap – including $110 million in 2024-2025 – on Towns, Gobert, and Reid would be outright salary cap malpractice. But since NBA teams are run by professionals, odds are good the Wolves will eventually try to shuffle around contracts to streamline position compensation.

What is worrisome, however, is that the Wolves could eventually find themselves in a situation where they will have to relinquish assets to avoid the second apron. Could that come at the cost of Jaden McDaniels, a forward who remains absolutely crucial to Minnesota’s future?

McDaniels – like Edwards – is up for an extension before the season, and odds are good he’d be worth $20 million on the open market.

Assuming Edwards re-signs at a max, and McDaniels signs for $20 million, those two alone would enter 2024-2025 earning around $55 million collectively, which is to be added to the $110 million occupied by the aforementioned center trio. That’s $165 million for five players, and the team would still be without a point guard, as Mike Conley is currently on an expiring contract.

Conclusively, something’s gotta give.

What we do know is that Edwards won’t be that something. He’s the future and the one player on the roster who is unquestionably staying put.

Moving off Gobert would make sense, but there’s no way the Wolves can ever win back what they gave up for him last summer. If they accept that fact, they might be able to move off of him in a salary dump this summer.

Unfortunately for the Wolves, we’ve already seen the value of expiring contracts due to the implementation of the new apron, set in at $179.5 million. The Golden State Warriors gave up Jordan Poole and draft compensation for Chris Paul, simply to get off long-term money. Any team trading expirings for Gobert will have every right to demand further assets.

For the Wolves, things are about to become difficult.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.