A fresh wave of controversy has erupted inside the XRP community after well-known market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO challenged the popular moving-average theory promoted by Benjamin Cowen.
Key Takeaways
- EGRAG says moving averages don’t work for exponential assets like XRP.
- Exponential tools are required for long-term accuracy.
- Skepticism toward high XRP targets repeats every cycle.
- Macro chart still signals major upside potential.
According to EGRAG, traders relying on the 50-day or 200-day moving average to predict long-term performance are “using the wrong tools for the wrong asset.”
EGRAG argues that assets like XRP don’t follow the same playbook as traditional markets because their growth is tied to exponential adoption cycles rather than linear price structures. In other words, models built on moving averages — which trail price action — may reflect past performance but fail to capture future acceleration.
The analyst says this is not a matter of opinion, but mathematics: exponential price curves, once ignited by adoption and liquidity, can move far faster than linear indicators can track. The same debate played out during Bitcoin’s last cycle, where the widely believed idea that BTC would never fall below the 200-day moving average was invalidated without hesitation.
EGRAG Calls for an Exponential Framework
Instead of moving averages, EGRAG recommends analytical tools that mirror the growth pattern of digital assets with large-scale network effects. Among those highlighted:
- Exponential regression curves
- Logarithmic growth channels
- Macro wave cycle structures
- Liquidity-based expansion models
These, the analyst says, align more closely with how XRP historically moves — long periods of consolidation followed by explosive expansion phases that leave lagging indicators behind.
#XRP – Exponential Assets Don’t Obey Moving Averages:
⚪️Here’s the truth:
▫️The 50-MA theory being pushed by Benjamin Cowen @intocryptoverse has misled a huge part of this space. His model simply does not apply to exponential assets, and it has zero mathematical relevance when… pic.twitter.com/DRF6Ad4eAF— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) November 25, 2025
Why the Long-Term Target Debate Continues
EGRAG maintains that the macro structure for XRP still supports a major upside breakout, regardless of short-term disbelief. The analyst points to the emotional resistance that the community has repeatedly shown toward high-value projections. When price targets of $7, $10, $20 and even $27 were published in previous years, they were dismissed as unrealistic — yet the same skepticism now persists around exponential projections for the next cycle.
The idea is simple: disbelief is a recurring trait of exponential markets. The majority only accept targets after price begins to validate them.
What It Means for XRP Traders Now
The latest version of EGRAG’s long-term chart (shared this month) centers on the “Genuine Wake-Up Line” breakout structure. The chart suggests that holding above key structural support could trigger the next macro wave — potentially bringing XRP into the long-awaited “expansion phase” where exponential tools outperform traditional averages.
This view sits in contrast to more conservative models driven by moving-average crossovers and linear range extensions, making the debate both analytical and philosophical:
Is XRP a commodity that behaves like a stock — or an exponential network asset?
Regardless of which camp proves right, one thing is clear: the XRP community is heading toward a decisive moment where the market will settle the methodology dispute better than any analyst ever could.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/market/why-some-analysts-believe-xrps-biggest-rally-is-still-ahead/