Genius Sports Limited (GENI), the core business-to-business provider of official real-time sports data to the betting and media industries, has been in a brutal freefall. The stock has plummeted over 34% since September.
This massive drop is being fueled by a perfect storm of negative factors. New competition—including prediction markets like Kalshi—poorly received Q3 earnings, and disappointing insider selling have combined to push GENI back to price levels last seen nearly six months ago in early April.
Six levels of support converge: The technical fortress
The good news is that the selling has become extreme. Technically, GENI is now oversold, especially after charting four straight weeks of declines. The stock is rapidly approaching not just one, but a cluster of critical, long-term support levels, all contained within an incredibly tight $0.70 range.
The key levels, working from the highest to the lowest, are:
- $8.64: The pivot high from September 25th.
- $8.45: A key swing low from early August.
- $8.15: The established low from April 7th.
- $8.08: The exact level required to fill the gap left from November 11th.
- $7.96: The crucial 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
- Slightly below $7.96: The long-term inclining trendline that originated all the way back in July 2022.
The close proximity of these significant levels should create rock-solid support, capable of generating a powerful relief bounce. If that support holds, the initial test for the price will be at $9.87, with a larger, potential upside target as high as $11.50.
Strategy: The shotgun approach
When a stock finds itself resting on multiple support levels so close together, a smart strategy is to deploy a “shotgun approach”. Instead of trying to pick one exact low, you separate your intended entry into smaller portions and scale into the trade at the specific support levels. This allows you to capture gains on a potential bounce even if it reverses before hitting the lowest support point, managing your risk while maximizing the chance of getting a great entry.
The density of this support zone makes this scaling strategy particularly intriguing for GENI right now.
