Why Saquon Barkley And The New York Giants Will Reach A Deal By The Deadline

Saquon Barkley won’t be playing under the franchise tag this season.

As Barkley and the New York Giants continue to stand at a stalemate regarding negotiations, both sides will eventually come to terms on a long-term deal. Barkley has made it clear that he’s not playing under the $10.9 million franchise tag that the Giants have offered him — he has yet to sign it — and that he’ll hold out if he doesn’t get a long-term deal done with New York.

In fact, as ESPN’s Diana Russini reports, his availability for Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys is in question if Barkley doesn’t get what he desires.

“Barkley has made it clear the franchise tag is undesirable,” Dianna Russini reported Wednesday. “I’m told his availability for Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys will be in serious question if he does not get a long-term deal from the Giants.”

The deadline for signing the franchise tag is on Monday. That means if Barkley doesn’t sign a multiyear deal by then, he’ll be required to play the 2023 season under the one-year tag or forfeit the tag’s guaranteed salary by sitting out the year.

We’re all very well aware of how devalued the running back position is these days. In fact, the average salary for a running back is slightly under $1.8 million. Running backs are ranked 17^th of 20 positions listed on Spotrac, ahead of only fullbacks, punters and long snappers. In other words, in terms of full-time offensive positions, running back is the least paid of all of them.

In fact, former Pro Bowl running backs such as Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott remain on the market. Meanwhile, other running backs of a similar age and production level as Barkley — Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard — were also franchise tagged by their teams. Jacobs is currently in the same boat as Barkley as he seeks a long-term deal for the Raiders. There’s just one major difference — Barkley will receive his long-term deal whereas Jacobs will likely play under the franchise tag designated to him by the Raiders.

While the Raiders are likely destined for a rebuild season due to the uncertain nature of Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury — along with the void clause in his contract if Garoppolo fails his physical — the Giants are entering the 2023 season with high expectations. Due to the large financial commitment to Daniel Jones — they’ll pay him $46 million this season and $36 million next year as part of his four-year, $160 million deal — New York is expecting to advance deeper into the postseason after winning a wild card playoff game last year.

And while Jones obviously demonstrated improved play under new head coach Brian Daboll, it’s clear that the offense runs through Barkley — not the quarterback. Long story short, the Giants are one of the few teams in the NFL and the only playoff contender where their success hinges on the play and presence of their running back.

Since drafting Barkley in 2018, the Giants are 9-13 without him. Furthermore, Jones’ play regresses deeply without Barkley in the lineup. With Barkley in the fold, Jones has thrown 44 touchdowns against 17 interceptions for 6.9 yards per attempt and a 91.4 passer rating. Without Barkley, he has 16 touchdowns versus 17 interceptions for 6.2 yards per attempt and a 77.3 passer rating.

In other words, the Giants aren’t making it back to the playoffs without Barkley and with Jones forced to carry the offense.

As Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports notes, Barkley is seeking a deal that would pay him more than $14 million per year on a deal.

“Barkley is reportedly seeking more than $14M per year on a new deal, which would make him one of the NFL’s highest-paid RBs,” writes Benjamin. “Only two other backs currently average more per year — the Saints’ Alvin Kamara and 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey.”

As Patricia Traina of Sports Illustrated notes, Barkley previously rejected deals worth $13 million — with $1 million in incentives — and $12.5 million per year from the Giants.

While Barkley may be holding out for that $14 million threshold, the more likely scenario sees him budging just slightly while taking a long-term deal with guaranteed money on the table. The guaranteed amount is more important to Barkley considering his history with injuries — he suffered a torn ACL during the 2020 season — and when factoring in his prime could very well be over in a couple of years.

The Giants will protect themselves by giving themselves an out after about two years into the deal. But Barkley will get his guaranteed money as he enters the most important season of his career.