Why Russia Would Want To Capture Land Leading To Moldova’s Transnistria

Topline

A Russian general’s stated goal of extending Russian-controlled territory to a tiny, pro-Kremlin breakaway state in eastern Moldova threatens to usher in a new chapter of fighting in Ukraine, potentially bringing a drawn-out conflict for hundreds of miles of land that could encroach on another European country.

A child stands on the T-34 Soviet tank set as a monument in the center of Tiraspol, capital of the … [+] self-proclaimed Moldovan Republic of Transnistria on April 3, 2017.

ALEKSEY FILIPPOVAFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Major Gen. Rustam Minnekayev said Friday the Russian army has been tasked with establishing “full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine,” adding that “control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria.”

Reaching Transnistria would require Russia to make massive gains in southern areas, where troops found initial success in the days after the start of the invasion but have largely been bogged down for weeks, making seldom and very slow advances.

Transnistria, an autonomous sliver of land located along much of Moldova’s eastern border with Ukraine, is well over 100 miles west of the front line in southern Ukraine.

Much like the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, Transnistria has a majority Russian-speaking population and has declared independence, though it has largely avoided the violence that’s plagued eastern Ukraine since two states declared independence there in 2014.

Russia has long maintained a military presence of so-called peacekeepers in Transnistria, and it’s believed there are about 1,500 Russian troops stationed in the region, along with thousands of Transnistrian troops loyal to the breakaway state.

What We Don’t Know

It’s unknown if Minnekayev’s comments Friday were officially sanctioned by the Kremlin.

What To Watch For

Odesa is the largest city in southern Ukraine, and the third-largest in the country overall. The city has massive cultural significance for both Ukrainians and Russians, being founded by Russian Empress Catherine the Great in 1794. It is located fewer than 50 miles southeast of Transnistria.

Surprising Fact

Moldova has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but officially maintains a policy of neutrality between Russia and NATO, and therefore has no stated aims at joining the alliance.

Big Number

More than 430,000. That’s how many Ukrainians have fled to Moldova since the Russian invasion started in February, according to the United Nations.

Key Background

Russian forces retreated from northern Ukraine earlier this month after repeatedly being repelled from taking Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. But Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed he would not relent on the war effort, and instead focus his forces on eastern and southern Ukraine, where Russians have long controlled much more land than they ever did in the north of the country. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday Russia had started its new offensive in eastern Ukraine, which has included intense bombardment of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Tangent

The Council of Europe last month declared Transnistria “occupied territory.” It had previously called the region “under the effective control of the Russian Federation.”