Why Nvidia (NVDA) is set for a pullback before earnings

One of the most anticipated events in the stock market is the upcoming Q2 2024 earnings report by the semiconductor giant Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA).

Besides outlining how the company has performed mostly regarding its bet on artificial intelligence (AI), attention will be on how the share price will react.

Notably, NVDA is experiencing bullish momentum, trading at $124 at the closing of markets on August 16. This value reflects a 24-hour gain of over 1%, while the equity is up 16% on the weekly timeframe.

As things stand, stock trading expert Vnkumar Trades’ analysis points to a bleak future for NVDA around earnings season. In an X post on August 17, the analyst noted that history suggests Nvidia often experiences a dip in its stock price ahead of earnings announcements.

Historically, Nvidia’s stock has tended to retreat in the days before its earnings reports, highlighting a cautious sentiment among investors who prefer to lock in gains or reduce exposure to potential volatility. The trend was observed in the last six quarters. 

“NVDA historically, we’ve often seen some pullback ahead of earnings. Be prepared for a potential pullback next week before the earnings report on 08/28 after hours,” the expert noted. 

Notably, this pre-earnings behavior can often be attributed to profit-taking by short-term traders and hedging by institutional investors.

Nvidia’s resistance zone 

Furthermore, the analysis indicated that Nvidia has exhibited a notable resistance level at $140, and the stock has struggled to break through in recent weeks. This resistance and decreasing volume suggest that buying momentum is waning as the earnings date approaches.

It’s worth noting that despite historical performances, external factors also play a significant role in this anticipated pullback. The broader tech sector has been experiencing heightened volatility amid increasing fears of a recession. Despite its strong fundamentals and leading position in the semiconductor industry, Nvidia is not immune to these macroeconomic pressures.

Indeed, the stock experienced a significant pullback in recent weeks, with the equity dropping below $100 amid a significant swing in capital within NVDA. The losses heightened fears of a possible AI bubble burst.

However, Nvidia has successfully recovered, comfortably trading above the $120 support zone, which is considered crucial to offering guidance to the next record high.

In the meantime, analysts maintain that Nvidia will likely beat most revenue estimates. For instance, experts at banking giant Jefferies maintain that the company will continue delivering earnings beats in the coming quarters. The analysts cited the strong demand for Nvidia products as a critical contributor.

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