Why next week could be brutal for the S&P 500

As the S&P 500 trades at new highs, historical data suggest the coming week could be brutal for the benchmark index.

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 6,664, up about 0.5% for the day, extending a rally of more than 4% over the past month.

Looking ahead, two decades of data on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) show that the upcoming week has often produced negative results, according to insights from charting platform TrendSpider.

Seasonality patterns point to a win rate of just 37%, making it one of the lowest-probability weeks for gains in the entire calendar year. 

The average return for this period stands at -0.86%. While most weeks across the year historically lean positive, with some posting win rates above 70%, this particular stretch has consistently underperformed.

Market watchers often pay attention to such trends, especially when they coincide with broader macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened volatility.

S&P 500 fundamentals 

Currently, the stock market is at a critical juncture, with several fundamentals in play that could shape next week’s outcome. Most notably, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its first reduction since late 2024, bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25%.

Although policymakers signaled more cuts may follow, inflation remains sticky, with consumer prices rising 2.9% in August. This complicates expectations for a looser policy stance.

On the brighter side, corporate earnings are holding up with S&P 500 companies expected to post roughly 7.7% profit growth and 6.3% revenue growth in the third quarter, extending a nine-quarter streak of earnings expansion. Technology and financials are driving gains, while energy and consumer staples lag.

Meanwhile, much of Wall Street remains optimistic, with some projecting the index could climb to the 7,000 milestone in the months ahead.

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