Why Leeds United Is Making A “Hail Mary” Appointment Of Sam Allardyce

With just four games left in the Premier League season, Leeds United is reportedly bringing in a new head coach.

Survival specialist Sam Allardyce is set to be taking the helm at Elland Road, having kept the likes of Sunderland, Bolton Wanderers and West Ham United in the top flight in the past.

Allardyce’s style at previous squads doesn’t seem to play into the strengths of Leeds’ squad, which is more suited to high pressing than low blocks.

But there’s not much anybody can do in just four matches anyway.

Even if “Big Sam” doesn’t use as sophisticated tactics as Pep Guardiola, there’s much more to his previous teams than just defend deep and play long balls. Any head coach needs longer than 360 minutes to have an impact, even so-called “survival specialists.”

In his first four games at West Bromwich Albion, Allardyce earned just one point (away to Liverpool) and in his first four at Sunderland, he got three points (a win against local rivals Newcastle United). Similar results in his next four games would likely send Leeds down.

Leeds’ owners are panicking now because they panicked last season, sacking Marcelo Bielsa after his injury-stricken team went on a horrendous run of results. But Bielsa’s team was far more than the sum of its parts and without the Argentinean in charge, those parts couldn’t function anywhere nearly as well.

But Leeds is willing to roll the dice because the costs of relegation are so high.

The more optimistic of fans could imagine their relegated side repeating Burnley’s success in the Championship this season, rebuilding with a young, exciting squad and up-and-coming manager and winning promotion while playing stylish soccer. Burnley spent some $40 million on their fresh start, roughly a third of all Championship spending this season. That was funded by more than $80 million of player sales, including Nick Pope to Newcastle and Dwight McNeil to Everton.

But for every Burnley, who bounced back immediately, there’s a Stoke City or Sunderland, stuck in the doldrums for years after relegation.

Just ask Nottingham Forest fans. Their love for current manager Steve Cooper is because Forest had been outside the top flight for more than two decades, and before Cooper’s appointment, Forest didn’t look like getting back to the Premier League any time soon.

Leeds were in a similar position as Forest before Bielsa’s appointment, having spent far, far longer than the club would have wanted outside the top flight. Now, after some time in the Premier League, both sides have much stronger squads than pre-Cooper or pre-Bielsa.

But Leeds’ squad has a very different look to it than Burnley’s before their rebuild. Leeds has roughly $195 million of wage obligations next season, before relegation wage cuts and player sales are taken into account.

That’s the highest of any of the bottom five Premier League sides.

Most of the club’s signings under former head coach Jesse Marsch were young players with potential, but this has come with high transfer fees and high wage obligations. Leeds also sold key assets Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha last summer. All of that means potentially less money for a rebuild.

Leeds has what looks like the toughest final four games of any of the bottom sides, starting with a trip to Manchester City. Winning that match seems like an impossible task, but to keep Leeds in the Premier League, Allardyce might just need as little as four points.

Leeds didn’t look like achieving that under Javi Gracia, which is why the club has rolled the dice. Even with a slim chance of success, the rewards of staying in the Premier League make it worth taking the chance.