Why LAFC, Philadelphia Union Have Better MLS Cup Prospects Than Past Favorites

The MLS Cup Playoffs are notoriously allergic to chalk. It’s been 19 years since the 2003 San Jose Earthquakes defeated the Chicago Fire 4-2 in the last MLS Cup final contested between the top seeds in each conference. And it’s been five years since even one top seed made the final, when 2017 No. 1 overall seed Toronto FC bested Seattle 2-0 to complete the only domestic treble in MLS history.

So as the 2022 MLS Cup Playoffs begin Saturday, it’s understandable to be skeptical of the notion LAFC and the Philadelphia Union might meet in this year’s final.

On the other hand, chalk is almost overdue. And both LAFC and Philadelphia have advantages on other recent top seeds, from the upcoming postseason schedule to who is standing in each team’s way, to even how each team secured their seeding.

So maybe 2022 is as good a year as any to finally have an MLS Cup clash of two regular season titans. Here are three reasons it could happen:

The Best Bye

The current MLS Cup Playoff format gives each top conference finisher a bye to the conference semifinals, while the remaining 12 teams play first-round elimination games.

In theory, that was supposed to increase the importance of the regular season. In practice so far, it has done the opposite.

In the two previous 14-team tournaments, only one of the four teams receiving the bye were able to advance beyond their first game. (The 2020 playoffs were restructured to an 18-team event due to the pandemic.)

But part of the issue might have the length of the break between those teams’ last regular season and first playoff games. Because in 2019 and 2021, the October international window fell in the middle.

In 2019, East top seed New York City FC went 17 days between their last league match and their first and only playoff clash. West leaders LAFC had 18 days, though they managed to survive a wild 5-3 win over the LA Galaxy.

It was even worse in 2021, when West top seed Colorado Rapids went 18 days between games and East top finishers New England Revolution had a 23-day hiatus.

In 2022, the last international break came two weeks before the close of the regular season, which means LAFC and Philadelphia will only be managing a much more reasonable 11-day gap between games.

Institutional Memory Loss

Although it’s hard to quantify, previous playoff experience often seems to matter in determining who moves forward in pursuit of the MLS Cup. And as LAFC and the Philadelphia Union eye their competition, they will find precious few opponents in their bracket with a recent track record of competing for this trophy.

Only six teams have reached the MLS Cup final since 2015. In alphabetical order: Atlanta United, the Columbus Crew, New York City FC, the Portland Timbers, the Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC. Only NYCFC have qualified for the playoffs this season, and they are without the manager and MLS leading scorer who guided them to win the 2021 MLS Cup.

The three active winningest coaches in MLS — Bruce Arena (New England), Peter Vermes (Kansas City) and Bob Bradley (Toronto) — are also on the outside of the playoffs looking in this year.

So if someone is going to be the playoff foil, it’s going to be a different face than we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years.

Pedal to the Metal

A third check in LAFC’s and the Philadelphia’s columns is that both teams were playing to the seasons’ very final stages with very real stakes.

In LAFC’s case, they wrapped up the Supporters’ Shield title in their penultimate game, a 2-1 win at the Portland Timbers decided by Denis Bouanga’s dramatic stoppage-time goal.

As for the Union, they had to win in their final regular season game just to make sure they secured the top East spot and a first-round bye ahead of second-place CF Montreal.

It wasn’t that way for some other recent top seeds. The 2021 New England Revolution, had already set the all-time MLS points record and been out of sight of chasing teams for several weeks before they lost to Inter Miami to close the regular season.

The 2019 LAFC Shield winners also had a similar arc on their travels to the top overall seed and since-borken MLS points record, attaining both despite dropping points in six of their last eight regular season games.

Nothing is for certain. But theoretically, these LAFC and Philadelphia Union teams should be more equipped to step back on the gas because they’ve barely taken it off.