Why Jakob Poeltl Is A Giant Bargain For The Spurs

In Chapter 7 of his book, The Midrange Theory, Seth Partnow outlines a formula for ascertaining how much a player is “worth” in a given season. And by using this measure, one can determine who around the association is being under/overpaid.

Now, I won’t bore you with the intricate details of the formula (check out his book for that), but in its simplest terms, the basic equation is: 

Production Value = Net Points * League Value Per Win

One player who experiences a stark contrast between their production value and the actual value of their contract is – you guessed it – Jakob Poeltl. This season, Poeltl is making $8.75 million. This makes some sense if you only look at his traditional points, rebounds, assists split (13.1/9.0/2.8). However, when you plug Poeltl’s data into the calculation above, the theoretical total he should be earning looks far different:

$20.46 million ≈ 6.6 * 3.1 million per win

Yikes! Poeltl is getting paid less than half his estimated production value. How has he managed to severely overperform his contract and become one of the most valuable deals in the league? To find out, we’ll need to take a deep dive into the data to figure out Poeltl is performing like a $20 million player.

Offense

The Spurs are 9.5 points better offensively with Poeltl on the floor (97th percentile) and an astonishing 11.7 points better with him out there in the halfcourt (98th percentile). And while Poeltl doesn’t have the offensive itinerary of a Jokic or Embiid, he’s able to have such a massive impact on that end of the floor thanks to his passing, screening, short mid-range game and offensive rebounding. 

Jakob Poeltl 2021-22 Stats

*Data Provided by Cleaning the Glass

**Data Provided by NBA.com

As the chart above illustrates, Poeltl pretty much ranks in the top-25 percentile in all four of these statistics. This specific set of skills is especially beneficial to a Spurs offense that runs a ton of two-man actions in the way of pick and rolls (7th in the league in frequency). In these situations, Poeltl can set hard screens to create space for the ball-handler, make passes in the short roll, hit three to ten-foot push shots, and secure his partner’s missed shots as he’s bustling down the lane.

Defense

His one-number impact metrics are down a notch from the elite level they were at last year, but those types of stats are always a little finicky because of the large impact team box scores can have on them. And when you dig into the weeds, Poeltl probably isn’t the one responsible for San Antonio’s lackluster performance on that end of the floor.

The Spurs have the worst opponent shooting luck in the league this season, as teams are currently shooting 40.3% on “open” three-point shots against them. This uncontrollable disparity – roughly three percent above league average – is at least part of the reason why the Spurs are in the bottom half of the league on that end of the floor.

What Poeltl can control on defense, he does so incredibly well. He’s world-class in the art of patrolling the paint without drawing an illegal defense call. And since he can consistently maintain close proximity to the hoop, he does an excellent job at contesting shots in the paint. Right now, players are shooting 7.4% worse than their average on shots contested by Poeltl within six feet of the rim (per NBA.com). Arguably even more impressive, Poeltl provides this sturdy brand of rim protection while also taking on the toughest matchup assignments of his career.

Conclusion

To conclude this discussion, I have included Poeltl’s ranking in some of the most frequently cited catch-all statistics:

*Based on players with at least 700 minutes

Like I said earlier, these types of measures are far from perfect. But when they are fairly constant across the board, they provide a solid barometer for forecasting a player’s overall standing within the league. Here, even Poeltl’s lowest scores in these stats paint him as a top-50 player, with most of them projecting him at All-Star levels. And if that’s the case, at less than nine million dollars, the Spurs have themselves one of the best bargain deals in the league.