Why It Might Not Matter That The Boston Celtics Have Home Court Advantage In Game 7

The Boston Celtics made a statement in the final game of the regular season: they wanted the second seed. In trotting out their full starting lineup against the Memphis Grizzlies’ b-squad, they decided that they would rather have a better chance at home-court advantage over trying to game a more favorable first-round matchup.

MORE FROM FORBESThe Boston Celtics Were Right To Play For The Second SeedBy Hunter Felt

So far, so good. The Celtics ended up sweeping the Brooklyn Nets in the first round and now, after beating the Milwaukee Bucks on the road in Game 6, they are hosting Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinals matchup at TD Garden. This should be significant: in the history of the NBA postseason, there have been 134 Game 7s and, out of those, only 28 have been won by the road team.

So far, however, this series hasn’t taken any conventional routes. In the six playoff games between Boston and Milwaukee, the home team has won exactly twice. The Celtics and Bucks went 1-1 on their opening homestands and each team then lost their subsequent home game.

It’s something of a puzzler for sure, but it speaks to the mental toughness of both teams. Celtics head coach Ime Udoka insists it’s not really a factor, a take which is reflected in Boston’s success away from the Garden. “It doesn’t phase us as much as other teams,” he has said about his team’s road efforts following their Game 6 victory. “We embrace it and enjoy it almost to some extent, going on the road and getting victories.”

That’s not to go so far as to say that the Celtics have a home-court disadvantage. Given the heightened chaos and media attention of a Game 7, the Bucks are likely dealing with more outside noise than their opponents. Plus, numbers back up the widespread belief that calls tend to go in favor of the home team. While no true basketball fan wants games coming down to the officials, it’s been known to happen (even within this series).

Game 7s, by their very nature, are unpredictable beasts. As one legendary Boston sports prophet once put it, they are where “anything can happen.” While statistics tell us what is most likely to happen given a large pool of data, Game 7s collapse an entire season into a single game. When that kind of compression happens, it means accepting the increased chances of unlikely events impacting actual outcomes.

To put it in more metaphysical terms: these are the times when the fates of entire seasons rest on the whims of those dreaded Basketball Gods. The ball will bounce where it bounces.

There is, however, one final measurable quantity here and that’s availability. At this current moment, it’s uncertain whether the Celtics will be able to play big man Robert Williams, who has missed the last three games after reinjuring his already damaged knee back in Game 3.

There is potential good news here: Williams’ status was upgraded to questionable yesterday. It’s a positive sign, but even if he’s available, Williams may not be starting or even playing heavy minutes, although just having him as an option on the bench should be enough to worry Milwaukee. Meanwhile, there is no optimism that the Bucks will be able to activate Khris Middleton. In fact, should they even survive Game 7, it’s not clear if they have a timetable that would bring him back for the Eastern Conference Finals.

As this writer pointed out at the beginning of the series, the Celtics were fortunate to be facing the Bucks at these particular circumstances. Now, it’s all on them to see if they will be able to cash in on the opportunity in front of them.