Why Is Consumer Confidence Ticking Up Again—And What Does It Mean For The Markets?

Key takeaways

• The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey results show consumer confidence rising from 103.6 in August to 108.0 in September
• Consumers are also overall more positive about present and future current business conditions and the labor market
• Despite consumers’ positive outlook, stocks dipped into a bear market on Tuesday as inflation rages and rate hikes continue

Consumer confidence rose in September, marking the second consecutive month of gains during a rough year. Moderating gas prices and slower inflationary gains appear to contribute to an overall more positive outlook.

Despite this good news, the S&P 500 and Dow both dipped into bear country Tuesday, joining the long-suffering Nasdaq Composite.

Consumer Confidence Survey results

The Consumer Confidence Survey is a monthly probe that gauges how consumers feel about the overall economy. On Tuesday, the Conference Board released its September results, showing that consumers’ confidence levels rose from 103.6 in August to 108 in the last month.

The Conference Board also found that average inflation expectations for the coming year dropped slightly from 7% in August to 6.8% in September. This modest decrease suggests that inflationary concerns have begun to dissipate, though not disappear.

The Present Situation Index

The Present Situation Index measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions. Overall, this score rose from 145.3 in August to 149.6 in September.

The percentage of consumers who believe current business conditions are “good” rose from 19% in August to 20.8% in September, while those who say conditions are “bad” fell from 22.6% to 21.2%.

A similar trend was found in job expectations, with the belief that jobs are “plentiful” rising from 47.6% to 49.4%. However, the needle hardly moved for consumers who believe that jobs are “hard to get.”

The Expectations Index

The Expectations Index gauges how consumers feel about the sixth-month outlook for income, business and labor market conditions. This score increased from 75.8 in August to 80.3 in September.

Overall, consumers were more positive about business conditions and labor market outlook. The percentage of consumers who expect business conditions to improve rose from 17.3% to 19.3%, while fewer consumers expect conditions to worsen (21.0% compared to 21.7%).

Consumers also anticipate the job market to remain robust, with those anticipating fewer jobs dropping from 19.6% to 17.7%.

However, consumers were more mixed about their own short-term financial prospects. On one hand, the percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to increase jumped from 16.6% to 18.4%. However, more consumers also expect their incomes to decrease (14.3% compared to 13.9%).

Unpacking consumer confidence results

September’s reading comes as welcome news, especially against this year’s undercurrent of economic woes and worries. According to Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, this month’s consumer confidence results are “supported in particular by jobs, wages and declining gas prices.”

A broad swatch of data supports this postulation, as national gas prices remain well below June’s record high of $5.02. Additionally, recent labor market reports show that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August, even as unemployment ticked up slightly to 3.7%.

Commerce Department data released Tuesday further bolsters this position. New orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods saw increased gains, with non-defense orders at their highest since January. These numbers signal that businesses continue to invest in their own growth.

However, the results aren’t purely cheery. According to Ms. Franco, “recession risks nonetheless persist,” buoyed by “mixed” purchasing intentions for cars and major appliances amid “rising mortgage rates and a cooling housing market.” Additionally, inflation and rate hikes “remain strong headwinds to growth in the short-term.”

Keith Buchanan, a portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, takes this position, too. Said Buchanan, “We’ve been surprised with just how correlated consumer confidence has been with energy costs and fuel costs.… [However], there are a lot of questions of, what does this inflationary environment do to consumer behavior?”

Recent Labor Department data found that consumer prices – a key measure of inflation – rose 0.1% between July and August, bringing 1-year inflation to 8.3%. Core prices, which exclude food and energy data, rose even higher at 0.6%, fueled by soaring rent and medical costs.

This stubbornly high inflation continues to outpace broader expectations and stoke concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive rate hike schedule. Both high inflation and higher interest rates raise the risk of an economic recession – a key concern for both consumers and investors.

What the data means for investors

The Consumer Confidence Survey isn’t an official metric for planning economic policy. However, since consumer attitudes greatly impact economic expansion and contraction, it’s a closely-watched gauge that can signal troubled or easing conditions.

Simply put, when consumers are confident, they spend more, leading to more stable, sustained growth. When consumers are nervous, they spend less and save more, contributing to smaller business profits and, in extreme cases, potential recessions.

But even though September’s survey shows consumer confidence on the rise, other macroeconomic factors continue to suppress investor confidence. As a result, the market didn’t respond positively to Tuesday’s news – in fact, quite the opposite.

Despite early morning rises, both the Dow and S&P 500 surrendered points by Tuesday’s close, ultimately slipping into bear country. (The Nasdaq Composite, which eked out a 0.25% gain, has been in a bear market for much of the year.)

These losses continue a trend that has seen every major index give up June’s gains as investors lose confidence in the Fed’s ideal “soft landing” amid aggressive fiscal tightening. Last week’s 0.75% interest rate hike – the third in a row of that magnitude – likely contributed to Tuesday’s pessimism.

A statement given Tuesday by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on the possibility of raising rates an additional 1% this year further cemented that the Fed is more focused on squashing inflation than avoiding a potential recession.

A note released by Bank of America strategists on Tuesday reflected that this reality is sinking in market-wide. Noted the BofA team: “Central bankers have been walking a tightrope trying to curb inflation while attempting to limit recessionary risks. However, their recent tone and ‘jumbo’ rate hikes have reinforced that the foremost priority is controlling inflation, even at the potential cost of a recession.”

Looking to the future

The Consumer Confidence Index isn’t the only economic data that investors will swallow this week.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to release its final iteration of Q2’s GDP data on Thursday. Presuming no upward revisions, the data will show that the broader economy has fallen for two consecutive quarters, marking a “technical” recession.

Additionally, the BEA will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index on Friday. The University of Michigan will also release its consumer sentiments report, giving more insights into current economic situations.

This week’s mixed bag isn’t the end of the world

Often, positive consumer confidence sentiments herald good news for the stock market. But given current economic conditions, it’s unsurprising that this week, investors just…weren’t feeling it. It’s possible that investors will continue not feeling it until the prospect of ever-rising rate hikes and market volatility fade into the distance.

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