Why Haven’t The Toronto Blue Jays Taken The Next Step?

They didn’t make the playoffs in 2021, but the Toronto Blue Jays served notice to all of major league baseball that they were a team on the rise. Their actual record was 91-71, a single game out of the postseason, but their Pythagorean record was far better at 99-63. My batted ball-based team true talent rankings pegged them as the 5th best team in baseball – and the best in the AL East, though they finished 4th in the standings.

This was a very young baseball club, destined to get even better, and had the bounce-back effect typical of teams who far underperform their Pythagorean record set to work in its favor as the 2022 season opened. And while the Jays currently stand in playoff position, things haven’t exactly gone as planned.

Did you have the firing of manager Charlie Montoyo and the playing of a meaningful August series with the BALTIMORE ORIOLES on your 2022 Toronto Blue Jays baseball card? Well, that’s where we are. Let’s take stock of some of the positives and negatives of their season, focusing more on some of the key areas that have limited the Jays to this point.

Any list of Blue Jay positives has to include key offseason acquisition Matt Chapman. Acquired for a package of prospects, Chapman has stabilized the Jays’ infield defense, a real problem in recent years. And after a slow start, his power bat has begun to awaken. While I still don’t see the potential MVP upside I once saw in Chapman, he’s beginning to again look like an All Star to me.

If there’s been a team in recent memory with such an abundance of riches at the catching position, I’d like to see it. Alejandro Kirk has been a revelation, making the All Star team in his first full season as a regular. Though he’s built like an end table, he’s offered reliable defense and incredible offense for his position, combining power with an outlier more-walks-than-whiffs profile. Danny Jansen has shown considerable power in the backup role, and mega-prospect Gabriel Moreno didn’t look overmatched in a brief MLB cup of coffee. He was only sent back to Triple-A because he simply must play nearly every day at this stage of development.

Oh, and Alek Manoah has emerged a legitimate MLB ace, missing bats and managing contact expertly. The only glitch with that situation is that there were higher expectations for multiple other Jay starting pitchers coming into this season. More on that in a minute, as we dive into the areas of concern that have held the club back.

THE YOUNG STARS HAVE GONE BACKWARD OR STAGNATED

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finished 2nd in the AL MVP voting last season at age 22. Their other young homegrown star, shortstop Bo Bichette, led the AL in hits at age 23. Teoscar Hernandez, squarely in his prime at 28, set personal highs with 32 homers and 116 RBI. Though limited to less than a half-season worth of games by injury, big free agent acquisition George Springer hit 22 homers with a .555 SLG. Lourdes Gurriel hit a career high 21 homers at age 27.

Now that’s a pretty dominant offensive core. And at their respective ages – Springer was the oldest at 31 in 2021 – you would expect progress, or at the very least stabilization from most of them. Instead, each and every one of them has stepped backwards at least a bit in 2022.

In fact, you can make a pretty strong argument that Kirk has been their most valuable position player this season, and no matter how good he’s been, that’s simply not a good outcome for this group. Guerrero has seen his average launch angle plunge back to pre-2021 levels, and Bichette has seen his already shaky plate discipline worsen. Both are young and have incredibly bright futures, but their struggles have turned a great offense into simply a good one.

Plus, Springer’s hurt again, Gurriel has but five homers, and Hernandez has only recently picked it up after a slow start.

THEIR POSITION PLAYER ADDITIONS HAVE BEEN HEAD-SCRATCHERS

Marcus Semien was a huge part of the Jays’ 2021 offense, hitting 45 homers as their everyday 2B. The early returns look kindly upon the club’s decision to let him go to the Rangers for a 7-year, $175M free agent contract. The Jays’ offensive weak spot in 2021 was 3B, manned by the combination of Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio. With Chapman now in place, the Jays opted to shift Espinal to 2B, where he has been adequate, though a big dropoff from Semien.

The club also moved 2021 CF Randal Grichuk to the Rockies for one of the most consistently mediocre offensive outfielders in the game in Raimel Tapia. He swings at everything, doesn’t hit the ball hard, and runs fast but inefficiently. Tapia is a non-contender’s ballplayer, and the Jays have handed him hundreds of at bats.

And at the trading deadline, they doubled down and acquired declining ironman 2B/CF Whit Merrifield from the Royals. His durability and speed have been his best traits over the years, but at this point only the durability remains, and given his declining production, even that is a double-edged sword. The prospect cost wasn’t all that high, and Merrifield does represent a viable insurance policy for both Espinal at 2B and Springer in CF, but he simply should not be playing every day for a contending club that purports to have an elite offense.

The Jays had such an offense before Kirk truly broke through this season, but thanks to their insistence on having two or three of Espinal/Merrifield/Tapia in the lineup at all times, they’ve dropped down a tier or two even when their young core is clicking on all cylinders.

THEIR STARTING PITCHERS BEHIND MANOAH ALLOW LOUD CONTACT

In 2021, the Blue Jays employed AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, who then signed a 5-year, $115M free agent contract with the Seattle Mariners during the offseason. The Jays had proactively traded for and signed Jose Berrios to a long-term deal of his own at the 2021 trading deadline, and then added free agents Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi last offseason.

The results have been largely negative. Berrios’ fastball has been extremely hittable, and though his K/BB profile has been solid, he ranks as the worst contact manager among AL ERA qualifiers at this fairly advanced stage of the season. No AL qualifier has yielded more homers, and only Frankie Montas has posted a worse Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score.

Gausman’s K/BB profile has been in the elite range, but has allowed scads of line drives and currently ranks in the bottom 20% of AL ERA qualifiers in contact management. He’s being paid to be a Cy Young contender (5 years, $110M), and he’s clearly not in that discussion at present. And while Kikuchi, as is typical of his past, shows flashes of electric stuff, he simply can’t throw enough strikes to be trusted or to even eat up innings – he’s averaging barely four innings per start.

So, Manoah is their only true slam-dunk starter at present, and he’s going to be entering uncharted territory in terms of innings bulk any day now.

The situation is far from bleak in Toronto. As I stated earlier, they are currently in playoff position, and it’s very possible that the best of 2022 is still ahead for players like Guerrero, Bichette, Gausman and others. But this isn’t where most of us saw the Blue Jays sitting in the middle of August. A team like the Orioles has little to lose if 2022 doesn’t wrap up in the most positive manner – for the Blue Jays, a lost year would represent a major lost opportunity.