Why Egypt May Have Sought Arms-For-Food Deal With Russia

Egypt’s purported plan to covertly supply Russia with rockets could have been motivated by Cairo’s need for a steady food supply for the millions of Egyptian citizens relying on heavily subsidized bread.

Citing a leaked top-secret U.S. intelligence document dated Feb. 17, the Washington Post reported that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi discussed a plan to manufacture 40,000 rockets for covert shipment to Russia, along with artillery rounds and gunpowder, with his senior military personnel. According to the document, Cairo hoped to keep the plan under wraps to avoid antagonizing its Western allies, especially the United States.

Egypt has officially denied the report. Notwithstanding its predictable denial, such an arrangement would hardly be all that surprising, especially given the spate of recent reports of dwindling Russian artillery stocks hampering Moscow’s ability to sustain offensive operations in Ukraine.

But what exactly did Egypt hope to get in return for allegedly risking its neck to supply Russia munitions?

Egypt may have hoped to secure a similar deal to the one Russia recently offered North Korea. In March, U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby disclosed that “Russia is offering North Korea food in exchange for munitions.”

Last year, reports indicated Russia sought millions of North Korean-produced artillery shells and short-range rockets to replenish its stockpiles. However, a possible exchange for food wasn’t mentioned in those reports. The COVID-19 pandemic hit Pyongyang’s agricultural sector hard, with its leader Kim Jong-un recently calling for a “fundamental transformation” of agricultural production to meet grain production targets.

As with Egypt, North Korea has a large manufacturing base capable of producing large quantities of artillery shells and rockets compatible with Russian launchers.

The Post report noted the significant number of deals Cairo and Moscow have recently reached. It also pointed out that Egypt has relied more on Russian grain since the Ukraine war began as part of an arrangement that helped it “avoid wheat shortages that could spark social unrest in a country where poverty is widespread and bread is served with nearly every meal.” (Unlike many Middle East and North African countries, bread is a more important staple for Egyptians than even rice.)

The report did not, however, mention the possibility of an arms-for-food trade.

Egypt imports 60 percent of its grain. Before Russia fatefully invaded Ukraine on Feb. 22, 2022, 80 percent of these imports came from Russia and Ukraine. For decades, subsidized bread for tens of millions of poor Egyptians has been an integral part of the state’s social contract. The Egyptian government provides such subsidized bread to more than 70 million out of its population of 104 million.

When the war in Ukraine began, Egypt was estimated to have enough strategic reserves of grain to last approximately a year until it could find alternatives. Today it’s facing a currency and inflation crisis and high food prices that could lead to political unrest.

Therefore, having its indigenous arms industry churn out tens of thousands of rockets for Russia in return for food supplies to shore up its strategic reserves could have been the risky, out-of-the-box plan Sisi’s government concocted. After all, his government has had good relations with Russia and purchased the most amount of Russian arms of any Egyptian government since 1979. And, the Egyptian authorities may have calculated that incurring limited U.S. sanctions against parts of its arms industry was a risk worth taking if it could avert domestic upheaval over high food prices or potential shortages.

Alongside Ukraine, Russia is one of the most important producers of agricultural commodities worldwide, especially when it comes to wheat, barley, maize, sunflower oil and seeds. When disclosing Russia’s proposed North Korean arms-for-food deal, Kirby claimed, “Russia would receive over two dozen kinds of weapons and munitions from Pyongyang.”

Cairo could supply much of what Moscow purportedly seeks from Pyongyang in return for the food aid and security Russia is uniquely positioned to provide in return. Consequently, it would not be surprising if that was the Sisi government’s plan. Whether it proceeds in light of this public disclosure has, of course, yet to be seen.