Why Does Ukraine Want Patriot Missiles Which Could Not Protect Saudi Arabia Against Drones?

According to news reports, the U.S. is finalizing plans to send Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine. The country has been coming under increasing attack from Russian drones and cruise missiles and according to the U.N. half the country’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed, causing blackouts affecting millions. But is the Patriot the right missile to defend Ukraine?

The MIM-104 Patriot is the U.S. Army’s premier long-range air-defence system, able to hit supersonic targets a hundred miles away at extreme altitude. While earlier missiles could only engage aircraft, the Patriot is also able to intercept ballistic and cruise missiles too, and was deployed in the 1991 Gulf War to protect U.S. forces from Iraqi Scud missiles. Since then the Patriot has gone through several upgrades, and now has high-resolution AESA radar providing 360-degree coverage.

However, while it is effective against aircraft, helicopters and cruise and ballistic missiles, the Patriot does not perform so well against small drones. In 2017 the Houthis started attacking Suadi Arabian Patriot sites with Qasef kamikaze drones, a type supplied by Iran. The drones targeted the system’s radar, aiming to put it out of action long enough for long-range missile attacks to get through.

There is some dispute about how effective these tactics were, but we do know that the Houthis have carried out a highly effective campaign of long-range drone strikes since then, with drone technology from Iran. These attacks have mainly hit oil installations and airports, causing casualties and setting off massive fires.

The most dramatic success was the strike on the Abqaiq oil processing plant in 2019 with a mix of drones and missiles, setting the facility ablaze and causing a blip on the global oil price.

A Western defense official told Reuters that Abqaiq had been defended by Patriots. It is not known whether the system’s radar could pick up the small, low-flying drones, or whether there were other issues.

Now Ukraine is also under attack from small kamikaze drones supplied by Iran, including some of the same types seen in Yemen. President Zelensky says that Russia is receiving at least 2,400 Shahed-136s, which are typically launched in salvoes and rely on numbers to ensure that some get through. Patriot missiles, at a million dollars (or more) a shot, hardly look practical to take out mass-produced drones costing a few thousand.

The Patriots appear to be supplied now not in response to an urgent need but because of a lag in response time. The Ukrainians have been asking for Patriot missiles since before the Russian invasion when the main threat was seen as Russian aircraft and missiles. At the time, U.S. officials decided it would take too long to train Ukrainian crews to use the system.

In March, when the supply of Patriot missiles was raised again, U.S. officials said it would require U.S. operators to be based in Ukraine, which was not possible. Now that the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be quick learners, with the U.S. supplied HARM missile among others, the view now seems to be that fast-track training is feasible. However, no details have been supplied on when the new air defense systems are likely to be up and running. The best guess is that it will be months rather than weeks, though Ukraine has delivered surprises by being early before, as with their own Neptune anti-ship missile.

Patriots will not stop the current wave of attacks, and may be too late to stop further damage to the power grid. However, other systems – notably the interceptor drones now being supplied – may prove an effective counter to the salvoes of Shahed-136. The small, low-cost and agile interceptors are designed to deal with drones, and can be supplied in much larger numbers than big supersonic missiles. German-supplied rapid-fire anti-aircraft guns are also proving lethal against the drones.

The Patriot missiles will provide a useful capability going forward – the threat from ballistic missiles has not disappeared – but the real significance is that the U.S. is now willing to supply heavier weaponry than the hand-held Javelin and Stinger missile shipped over in the early days of the invasion. The Patriot missiles were part of a long list of hardware that the U.S. has previously been reluctant to supply, from F-16 jets to battle tanks and long-range missiles. The Patriots are a first indication that things are changing and we may see some much more significant arms transfers in the new year.