Why A Kevin Durant Trade Is A Long Shot For The Sixers

The Philadelphia 76ers already overhauled their roster this offseason with the additions of P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and De’Anthony Melton, but they may not be done yet.

On Wednesday, SNY’s Ian Begley reported that “as of earlier this week, there were high-ranking members of the Sixers who’ve felt strongly” about discussing a potential Kevin Durant trade with the Brooklyn Nets. Begley also said Durant views the Sixers as a “welcome landing spot,” while Frank Isola of the New York Dai
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ly News added that Durant would like to play with James Harden again.

Durant originally requested a trade from the Nets on June 30, hours before free agency officially began. He reiterated that trade request this past weekend in a meeting with team governor Joe Tsai and said Tsai “needs to choose between Durant or the pairing of general manager Sean Marks and coach Steve Nash,” according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.

Tsai made his choice clear Monday evening, only a few hours after Charania’s report broke.

However, the Sixers will have a tough time outbidding the other interested Durant suitors.

The Sixers already owe their unprotected 2023 first-round pick and top-eight-protected 2027 first-rounder to the Nets from the trade that landed them Harden back in February. They also owe a top-six-protected 2025 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the Al Horford/Danny Green swap in 2020.

The Stepien Rule prevents teams from being left without first-round picks in back-to-back drafts, which means the Sixers are not allowed to trade their 2024, 2026 or 2028 first-round picks unless they acquire another first-rounder in any of those respective drafts. The earliest first-round pick they can trade is in 2029, although even that comes with a caveat.

Teams aren’t allowed to trade draft picks more than seven years in the future. Since the Sixers’ 2025 and 2027 picks have (light) protections on them, they can’t guarantee that their 2029 first-round pick would actually convey that season.

The Sixers could offer to remove the protections from the 2027 pick to make it fully unprotected. But when it comes to their 2029 first-rounder, they’d have to include a condition about what happens if it doesn’t convey that season. (The Sixers could instead send Brooklyn a second-round pick in that scenario.)

The Sixers can also offer a first-round pick swap in 2024, but the Nets already traded their 2024 unprotected first-rounder to the Houston Rockets in the deal that landed them Harden back in January 2021. Unless the Sixers alter the protections on their 2025 and 2027 picks, they can’t offer pick swaps in 2026 or 2028, which means their best offer for Durant might only contain a conditional 2029 first-rounder.

Would that outweigh pick-heavy offers from the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat or New Orleans Pelicans? That depends on how much else those teams and the Sixers are willing to offer.

According to Charania, the Celtics offered Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and a draft pick to the Nets for Durant, but the Nets rejected that offer and countered with Brown, Marcus Smart, “draft picks and potentially one more rotation player.” Adam Himmelsbach of the Boston Globe reported Wednesday that there “has not been any real traction” on a deal between the Nets and Celtics and they are “not close to a deal.”

The Raptors “feel they can put together the best package of assets” for Durant, according to Michael Grange of Sportsnet, but they have “remained fixed on keeping Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes out of any package.” The Pelicans have yet to put Brandon Ingram on the table, per HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto, while Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reported that the Heat don’t plan to offer Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler.

After re-signing Deandre Ayton in free agency, the Suns can’t trade him until Jan. 15 at the earliest. Until then, their best offer is some combination of Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, a ton of draft picks—they can offer four unprotected first-rounders—and salary filler such as Jae Crowder, Landry Shamet and/or Dario Saric.

Any Sixers offer for Durant would have to start with Tyrese Maxey, their lone blue-chip prospect at the moment. Tobias Harris would serve as the primary salary filler, while they could also include other young players such as Matisse Thybulle, Jaden Springer, Paul Reed, Charles Bassey and/or Isaiah Joe.

Harris is a productive player, but he likely has negative trade value with two years and $76.9 million remaining on his contract. Thybulle is heading into the final year of his rookie contract and is an elite defender, but his offensive limitations rendered him ineffective in the playoffs. Springer, Reed, Bassey and Joe are all mystery boxes at this point in their respective careers, which will limit their trade value.

Back in May, a source told Liberty Ballers’ Paul Hudrick that the Sixers “view Maxey as a franchise cornerstone and untouchable.” If that’s still the case, they don’t have a prayer of trading for Durant. But even if they do come off that stance and are willing to include Maxey in a Durant package, it’s difficult to imagine them outbidding all of the other potential suitors.

The Sixers would also have to be mindful of the $157.0 million luxury-tax apron while discussing a Durant trade. They hard-capped themselves by signing Tucker with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and House with the bi-annual exception, which means they can’t exceed the apron at any point between now and June 30. With 16 players under contract (not counting Exhibit 10 signings or two-way players), the Sixers are roughly $3.4 million below it at the moment.

Luckily, Harris’ contract could be their saving grace in that regard.

Durant will earn $44.1 million this upcoming season, while Harris ($37.6 million), Maxey ($2.7 million) and Thybulle ($4.4 million) will combine to make $44.7 million. The Sixers couldn’t take back another bloated contract in a Durant trade (such as Joe Harris’ $18.6 million salary), but they wouldn’t have any hard-cap concerns with a three-for-one framework involving Harris, Maxey and Thybulle. They’d still have enough room under the apron to round out their roster with a $1.8 million veteran-minimum contract, too.

When a first-ballot Hall of Famer like Durant becomes available, every team has to do its due diligence and see what it would take to acquire him. The Sixers’ lack of draft capital may be their undoing when it comes to getting a deal done, though.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.