Who Or What Is Behind The Fires?

A column of smoke rose into the sky about Moscow on Wednesday: official news agency TASS reported that a small fire had briefly broken out and had been quickly extinguished with no casualties. Nothing to see here, apparently. The fact that the fire took place at the headquarters of Russia’s Defence Ministry, and that the building is a stone’s throw from the Kremlin, may be mere incidental details. But major fires are increasingly common in Russia these days, as new report by OSINT agency Molfar details.

Before the war, Molfar was a commercial company reporting on markets, companies and individuals. Now their volunteers support Ukraine with open-source intelligence. Previous projects have included identifying war criminals and refuting Russian propaganda – and, in January, an analysis of the number of major fires breaking out in Russia, noting in particular that the rate of fires went up by 26% in both November and December, suggesting an exponential rate of increase.

“There’s been a bit of a change in how information about fires at military plants and energy facilities in Russia is being handled,” Daria Verbytska of Molfar told Forbes. “It seems like the media over there isn’t reporting on these incidents as much as they used to, and when they do, they’re either omitting important details or downplaying the extent of the damage. Luckily, the Molfar team was able to get their hands on some detailed information from a reliable source with the necessary access. They could even use some “closed” statistics from the state register of the rf’s emergencies to verify everything. So, they’ve got the full picture and can double-check everything.”

The new report confirms that the number of fires is continuing to increase sharply. The first three months of 2023 saw 212 fires, compared to 414 for the whole of 2022. Each of these is a multi-million dollar event, hitting Russia at a time when the economy is already in steep decline.

Molfar found the most common facilities to burn were warehouses, factories and shopping centers, as well as oil and gas storage and pipelines. Some of the fires were in military installations, including the workshop of an arms company and an ammunition warehouse in Belgorod , but most had no obvious military connection.

The fires are most densely concentrated in Moscow, which saw 40 of the 414 fires last year or about 10%. That trend has intensified – 35 of the 212 fires this year (over 16%) have been in Moscow, including 20 warehouses and 6 factories.

The Molfar analysts suggest two possible causes for the sharp uptick in the number of blazes: actions by Russian partisans opposed to the Putin regime, or long-range sabotage carried out by Ukrainian forces. They currently believe that a combination of these two are responsible.

On the Ukrainian action side, Molfar point to an initiative called Black Box, which like many such projects was financed by the Come Back Alive Foundation via crowdfunding. The effort raised over 40 million -hryvnias – about $1m – and the Foundation reported that in October they “purchased and handed over to the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine equipment capable of reducing Russia’s offensive potential.”

“Due to confidentiality, we cannot disclose the details of this cooperation, but its results will definitely be reflected on the battlefield. According to our calculations, the project, which we call “Black box” among ourselves, caused millions of dollars in damage to Russia in October alone. Together with benefactors and all concerned Ukrainians, we will continue influencing the combat capability of the enemy,” Major General Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, is quoted as saying.

Molfar note that the steep increase in fires appears to have coincided with the delivery of the mysterious Black Box system.

But what is Black Box? Other Come Back Alive initiatives have included offensive cyberwarfare capability “to inflict damage on the Russian army on the real battlefield” and another for long-range kamikaze drones. Either of these technologies might be used to start fires from a distance – though the fact that Black Box is separate to either suggests it might be something else entirely.

Russian news media typically report fires and explosions behind their lines as the result of careless cigarette smoking, a tendency mocked by Ukraine leading to jones about Ukraine’s HIMACS – High Mobility Artillery Cigarette System.

Certainly there are careless smokers in Russia, like the man caught on camera setting himself on fire while attempting to light a cigarette while filling his car at a gas station. But this does not explain the sudden increase in the number of fires.

“If the trend of increasing fires at military facilities continues, it’s possible that the state may try to keep it under wraps and there may be even less information about these incidents in the media,” says Verbytska. “This could lead to further concerns among the public about what’s happening and how it could affect their safety.”

The cause remains mysterious. But if the trend does continue as expected Russian authorities should have plenty more chances in the coming months to find out just who or what is behind the blazes.