Who Is Favored To Win The Oscar? Viewers And Oddsmakers Make Their Picks

The 95^th annual Oscars are scheduled for this Sunday March 12 on ABC at 8 p.m. (ET) and televised across 200+ nations/territories worldwide from Hollywood’s Dolby Theater. After going three years without a host, Jimmy Kimmel will return for this year’s telecast. For Kimmel it will be the third time as host. Previously, the late-night host had emceed the Oscars in 2017 and 2018. In recent years the viewing of the Oscars has been dropping. While last year’s average audience improved to 15.4 million viewers, it was the second least watched to date.

The three-hour (or probably longer) live telecast will present the award in 23 categories, with the six most anticipated categories being Best Film, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.

To find out who are the favorites for Oscars will be, Diesel Labs, a predictive media analytics company, recently analyzed interest/engagement data from social and video platforms from fans of last year’s telecast and anticipated viewers for this Sunday’s telecast. With legalized wagering now available in three dozen states, the latest betting odds from DraftKings are included for additional color.

Best Picture Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All At Once; Tár; The Banshees of Inisherin; The Fabelmans; Top Gun: Maverick; Triangle of Success; Women Talking

· Diesel Labs: Of the ten films nominated, Diesel Labs reports the two films with the highest engagement were also the two films that were the highest grossing. Top Gun: Maverick ranked first among Oscar fans. The Tom Cruise sequel has generated nearly $1.5 billion in global box office ($718.7 million domestically). Ranking a close second was the James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water. To date, the sequel has generated $2.82 billion worldwide ($671 million domestically), making it the third highest grossing film of all-time. The pre-Oscar favorite in the category Everything Everywhere All At Once ranks third.

· DraftKings: Everything Everywhere All At Once is the betting favorite to capture the Best Picture Oscar. The movie has already won Best Film in such prestigious award shows as the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and Critics’ Choice Movie Awards. The remake of the antiwar classic All Quiet on The Western Front, which won the BAFTAFTA
for Best Film, ranked second. Oddsmakers ranked the Irish comedy/drama The Banshees of Inisherin which won a Golden Globe third, followed by Top Gun: Maverick.

Best Director Nominees: Todd Field (Tár); Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once); Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin); Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

· Diesel Labs: According to Oscars fans this should be among the most competitive of the six categories, with Rubin Ostlund edging out Todd Field in terms of audience engagement. Although the award could easily go to any of the five nominees.

· DraftKings: Oddsmakers peg Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert to capture their first Oscar. The pair has already won the Directors Guild Award and Critics’ Choice Movie Awards. Favored second is Steven Spielberg who won a Golden Globe as Best Director this year. For the 76-year-old Spielberg this is his 22nd Oscar nomination (he’s won three times).

Best Actress Nominees: Ana de Armas (Blonde): Cate Blanchett (Tár); Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie); Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans); Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

· Diesel Labs: Among the five lead actresses, Oscar enthusiasts overwhelmingly pick Andrea Riseborough to win the Oscar with Michelle Williams runner up. This is likely due in part to a grassroots campaign to bring her to the top of social engagement lists. Surprisingly, Michelle Yeoh is tied for last among the nominees with Ana de Armas.

· DraftKings: Oddsmakers see a close race with Michelle Yeah slightly favored over Cate Blanchett. Yeoh has won several prestigious awards earlier this year including the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. For Blanchett this is her eighth Oscar nomination winning twice. Earlier this year, Blanchett won the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and BAFTA.

Best Actor Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis); Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin); Brendan Fraser (The Whale); Paul Mescal (Aftersun); Bill Nighy (Living)

· Diesel Labs: Oscar fans see a competitive race with Colin Farrell holding a slight lead in engagement over Austin Butler. Both actors had won a Golden Globe in January. Butler also won the best acting BAFTA. Ranking third is Brendan Fraser who won the Screen Actors Guild Award and Critics’ Choice Movie Awards.

· DraftKings: Among oddsmakers, Brendan Fraser is favored to capture the Oscar followed by Austin Butler with Colin Ferrell third.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever); Hong Chau (The Whale); Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin); Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once); Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

· Diesel Labs: Angela Bassett, the first actress to be nominated for a role in a Marvel film garnered the most attention from Oscar buffs. This year, the 64-year-old Bassett has already won the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and Golden Globes. Another 64-year-old Jamie Lee Curtis who won the SAG Awards ranked second. Stephanie Hsu is a distant third.

· DraftKings: Similar to Diesel Labs, oddsmakers favor Angela Bassett over Jamie Lee Curtis with Stephanie Hsu third. All three have never won an Oscar although Angela Bassett was nominated in 1994 for Best Actress.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees: Brendan Gleason (The Banshees of Inisherin); Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway); Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans); Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin); Ke Huy Quon (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

· Diesel Labs: Oscar viewer engagement is highest for Ke Huy Quan who has won a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and SAG Awards this. Brian Tyree Henry ranked second in the category.

· DraftKings: Oddsmakers overwhelmingly expect Ke Huy Quan to capture his first Oscar. Barry Keoghan who won the BAFTA and co-star Brendan Gleason are runners-up.

“Audience engagement is a very different metric than the members-only votes that are used by the Academy to select winners” shared Anjali Midha, CEO of Diesel Labs. “However, it does help us understand where fans are leaning and provide a bit more insight into how the outcomes might be received by viewers come Sunday night.”