White Sox’ Lucas Giolito, Reds’ Luis Castillo Lead List Of MLB’s Best Changeups

Opening Day is just around the corner, and as the games begin, let’s take a final look back at last season in my annual “Best Pitches” series.

Let’s go pitch by pitch through the arsenals of all starting pitchers who threw 135 or more innings last season and determine the game’s best – and worst – offerings. The main inputs are pitchers’ bat-missing and contact management results. Each pitch is compared to league average swing-and-miss rates and pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Scores.

Adjusted Contact Score is, on a scale where 100 equals MLB average and the lower the number the better, the relative production a pitcher “should have” allowed based on the exit speed/launch angle mix of every batted ball yielded. An average pitch gets a “B’”, and a sliding scale is applied to each pitcher’s results to approximate a bell curve.

Today, we begin with the changeups. As usual, the changeup graded out as MLB’s most effective pitch in 2021. It yielded an average Adjusted Contact Score of 80.4, best of any pitch. Its 14.5% swing-and-miss rate ranked second behind only the slider. 41 pitchers met the total pitch and batted ball requirements to get a grade, with the six pitchers below receiving either an “A” or “A+” grade. Two of them – the White Sox’ Lucas Giolito and Reds’ Luis Castillo – get top billing, due to their superior innings load and changeup frequency.

RHP Lucas Giolito (White Sox) – A – (73 Adj. Contact Score, 19.8% Whiff Rate) – This isn’t the first rodeo for Giolito’s changeup – he got top billing and an even better “A+” grade last offseason, after getting a “B+” in 2019. Among the 41 2021 qualifiers for a letter grade, only Zach Davies threw his changeup more often than Giolito (by 32.9% to 31.8%).

Like most of the top changeup artists, Giolito’s bat-missing stood out the most. His pitch-specific swing-and-miss rate ranked 5th best among the group, and his Adjusted Contact Score was tied for 12th. While the changeup is a grounder-generating pitch for most hurlers. Giolito gets it done in a far different way. He posted a 14.9% pop up rate with his change, nearly twice the MLB average.

He also stifled fly ball authority with the pitch, posting a 53 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. Stylistically, Giolito doesn’t throw his change very hard (81.6 mph), or with very much spin (1492 rpm), and it has below average horizontal (5.9 in.) and above average vertical movement (6.1 in.).

RHP Luis Castillo (Reds) – A – (67 Adj. Contact Score, 17.8% Whiff Rate) – Like Giolito, Castillo represents changeup royalty. While he received only a “B+” grade last year, he got an “A+” in 2019 and a “B+” in 2018. His pitch-specific results were pretty close to Giolito’s across the board – his swing-and-miss rate finished 6th among qualifiers, and his Adjusted Contact Score ranked 10th, and only Davies and Giolito threw their change more often than Castillo (30.3%) among qualifiers.

That said, Castillo’s changeup got the job done in a much different way than Giolito’s. His is a big-time grounder-inducing pitch, with a 54.9% grounder rate. The combination of grounder frequency and fly ball authority suppression (3rd best Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score at 43) is a powerful one.

There are also significant stylistic difference between our two headline changeups. Castillo throws his hard (88.5 mph) with lots of spin (1909 rpm), with almost no vertical (0.5 in.) and a very significant amount (9.6 in.) of horizontal movement.

The Other Star Pupils – The other two 162+ inning “A”-grade recipients are Gerrit Cole (Yankees) and Brandon Woodruff (Brewers). This is an interesting breakthrough for Cole, who hasn’t thrown his change often in the past. He raised its usage rate to 14.2% in 2021, and his pitch-specific 49 Adjusted Contact Score was the best among all qualifiers. It was partially due to a low 15.9% liner rate, which he isn’t likely to repeat moving forward. Woodruff rode a high 21.5% swing-and-miss rate to his “A” grade, and was best at muting liner authority (78 Adjusted Liner Contact Score). Woodruff’s change had a high average spin rate (1906 rpm).

Yusei Kikuchi (Mariners 2021/Blue Jays 2022) is the only recipient of an “A+” grade for his changeup. His 21.6% swing-and-miss rate ranked 2nd (behind the player below) among qualifiers, and his strong pitch-specific contact management performance was on the strength of a standout 62.7% grounder rate. Kikuchi’s changeup’s low average spin rate (1452 rpm) also stands out. So why hasn’t Kikuchi broken through yet? None of his other pitches graded out as average. There is upside here. Jordan Montgomery (Yankees) is the final “A” grade recipient. His 21.7% pitch-specific swing-and-miss rate led all qualifiers. His 85 pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score didn’t stand out in this company, though his ability to thwart grounder authority (56 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score) was in the top tier.

Just Missed: 11 pitchers received “B+” grades for their changeups in 2021: Zack Greinke, Julio Urias, Luis Garcia, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lance McCullers Jr., Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales, Max Scherzer, John Means, Aaron Nola and Wade Miley.

Among that group, Garcia, Means and Nola were the best bat-missers, Greinke, Urias, McCullers, Flexen and Scherzer the best contact managers, with Miley, Means, Rodriguez and Greinke throwing the pitch most often.

The Worst Changeups: Adrian Houser (Brewers) got an “F” for his changeup, while Mike Foltynewicz (Rangers) and J.A. Happ (Twins/Cards, now a free agent) got “D+”’s. It’s really hard for a pitch to get an “F” – but Houser’s pitch-specific 6.1% whiff rate and 126 Adjusted Contact Score were both over two full standard deviations worse than average. Foltynewicz lagged in contact management (130 Adjusted Contact Score, the only one worse than Houser), Happ in whiff rate (7.7%, 39th of 41 qualifiers).

2020 “A” Grade Recipients: We’ve already discussed Giolito. Kenta Maeda and Matthew Boyd didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify this time around. Kyle Hendricks (77, 13.8%) and Ryan Yarbrough (78, 12.3) got “B” grades in 2021, Dallas Keuchel (89, 14.0%), a “C+”.

Overall, 2021’s best changeups came in all shapes and sizes, with widely varying average spin rates, though on average they tended to be thrown hard, with either well above average horizontal or vertical movement. Here is a table with all 2021 qualifying changeup grades.