Where Is Ukraine Getting Its Bombers?

The Ukrainian air force apparently has lost all but one of the dozen or so Sukhoi Su-24 bombers it had in active service before Russia widened its war on Ukraine on Feb. 23.

So how is it possible that people on the ground in eastern and southern Ukraine still are spotting Ukrainian Su-24s roaring past at low level, showing off their distinctive swinging wings and prominent tail badges as they barrel toward or from Russian lines?

There’s just one plausible explanation: that the Ukrainian air force and industry has managed to restore some, if not many, of the dozens of old Su-24s the air force kept in storage—mostly in Bila Tserkva, just south of Kyiv in central Ukraine.

The apparent regeneration of old airframes offers some hope that, despite heavy losses, Ukraine’s sole Su-24 regiment might stay in the fight over the medium term.

The Ukrainian air force inherited all of its two-seat, twin-engine Su-24s from the Soviet air force when the latter dissolved in 1991. Exact figures are hard to come by, but it’s possible that, in those early years, the newly independent Ukrainian air arm possessed more than 200 Su-24s, each capable of hauling three tons of bombs out to a distance of 400 miles.

Insolvent and at peace at the time, Kyiv steadily cut back its bomber force-structure until, by the time of Russia’s wider assault on Ukraine back in February, there were just a dozen—maybe 14—active Su-24s, all belonging to the 7th Bomber Regiment at Starokostiantyniv in western Ukraine.

The Su-24s like most Ukrainian warplanes dispersed from their main base in order to avoid the initial Russian bombardment. The bombers quickly flew into action, dramatically bombing Russian paratroopers helicoptering into Hostomel airport near Kyiv in the chaotic first few days of the wider war.

But the Su-24 is old and, in Ukrainian service, mostly unmodified from its original Cold War condition. Its radar-warning gear and jammers are old. The type must fly through enemy air-defenses in order to drop its unguided bombs.

All that is to say, the Su-24 is vulnerable. So it should come as no surprise that losses have been heavy. The analysts at the Oryx blog have confirmed the destruction of 11 Ukrainian Su-24s and the deaths of several crews.

In theory, that would leave the air force with as few as one active Su-24. That’s too few to sustain flight operations on a regimental level.

But the 7th Bomber Regiment is still active on the eastern and southern fronts. Videos that circulated online as recently as Wednesday depict the regiment’s bomber—or bombers—in action.

That almost certainly means the Ukrainians have found extra Su-24s, somewhere. They’re not coming from Kyiv’s allies, none of which still have the type in their inventory.

But as recently as 2015, there were as many as 47—and perhaps more—intact Su-24 airframes in storage in Starokostiantyniv and Bila Tserkva. The Russians have targeted both bases, but it’s unlikely they managed to destroy every restorable airframe.

Ukrainian engineers have proved that, with adequate spare parts, they can return old airframes to flightworthy status. An influx of spares back in April, possibly from Poland, helped the Ukrainians to fix 20 or so fighters, most likely MiG-29s. There’s no reason they couldn’t also repair Su-24s.

Indeed, the huge number of old bombers that were in storage could boost the effort. Each derelict airframe is a source of spare parts. Three dozen grounded Su-24s should be enough to make a dozen Su-24s flightworthy.

Also: there should be no shortage of trained aircrews, as recently retired crews should be willing to return to service.

But the spares eventually will run out. If the air force continues losing Su-24s at a rate of one every 10 days or so, the 7th Bomber Regiment might run out of airframes again … in a few months.