Key Takeaways
- The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data monthly, and the next report will be released on December 13, 2022.
- When inflation increases, consumer purchasing power declines, which means your money won’t go as far.
- The inflation reports impact everyone because these figures tend to influence the stock market and guide the Fed in decisions about rate hikes to cool down the economy.
The most recent inflation data report just came out, and it looks like inflation has finally cooled down after the most aggressive rate hike campaign since the 1980s started to take effect. The Fed has raised rates all year to combat inflation, which has impacted the cost of everything.
Consumer inflation was reported at 7.7% in October, and the year-over-year increase was the smallest rise since January 2022. Analysts appear to be pleasantly surprised by the cooling inflation numbers, but we’re nowhere near the finish line when it comes to fighting inflation.
Let’s look at the most recent inflation report and what to expect moving forward.
The October Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently announced the October inflation figures. This data confirmed that rate hikes were making an impact on slowing down the economy, with inflation finally easing up.
As investors and analysts wait for the economy to cool enough so that the aggressive rate hikes can slow down, it looks like this is a positive sign.
New inflation data came out on November 10, indicating that inflation has slowed down more than expected. The all-items index went up 7.7% for the year ending in October, which is the smallest 12-month rise since the period that ended in January 2022.
The core CPI, which doesn’t include volatile items like food and energy, increased by 0.3% from the previous month. The core measure dropped from a four-decade high in September by falling to 6.3%
Is this a sign that inflation has been tamed? Maybe, but it’s important to remain cautious because many analysts have declared that it will take an extended period for inflation to slow down.
Where does the inflation data come from?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data monthly in a report that breaks down the inflation rate for every category. It lets you view how prices went up in different industries, ranging from energy to take-out food.
This data shows us the price change over time by sharing the figures from the previous month and the last 12 months.
The CPI measures the average change in the price of certain consumer goods and services over a specific period. This index is the primary indicator of inflation as the figures are watched closely by the financial world and policymakers.
What’s happening with recent inflation reports?
When the inflation report came out in October, some analysts were optimistic to see that the headline rate was up 0.4%, while the rate from the last 12 months had dropped slightly. The news was somewhat positive, but nobody actually celebrated.
Inflation data reports are used for a variety of reasons. The markets have been responding to this data lately because soaring inflation leads to continued rate hikes from the Fed, which risks putting us into a recession.
What’s impacting inflation right now?
When we look at inflation data reports, it’s important to consider all relevant factors. The CPI inflation is essential for analyzing how the Fed’s efforts are playing out, especially since the inflation numbers have remained frustratingly high.
In response to soaring inflation, these rate hikes have caused a significant decline in the stock market since many investors are seeing their portfolios dropping. While inflation is expected to remain high throughout the end of the year, there are signs that prices could level out by 2023.
Here’s some of the inflation data that’s worth paying attention to:
- The prices of clothing, used cars, and medical care fell.
- Rent inflation should slow down in 2023 as rate hikes calm down.
- Used car prices are showing signs of slowing down as supply chain issues are resolved.
- Energy prices continue to increase, with gasoline going up 4% in October.
- The prices of child care, health care, meals out, and airfares will be essential to monitor because these rates are tied to wage gains, making it difficult for inflation to drop to 2%.
It’s essential to consider the impact of supply chain issues on the prices of all goods. When the pandemic restrictions lightened, demand for many items skyrocketed, and the supply couldn’t keep up.
We also can’t forget the significance of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since this has caused energy prices to soar.
Why do these inflation numbers matter so much?
We pay close attention to the inflation data reports because the numbers show how expensive everything is.
On top of this, central banks worldwide are responsible for keeping inflation sustainable so that everyday items don’t become too expensive for consumers. This means that when inflation increases at an unexpected rate, the central banks have to step in and take action.
Central banks take action by raising interest rates to make the cost of borrowing money more expensive. In turn, this cools down the economy.
When the Fed starts to increase interest rates, there’s no predicting what the impact will be on the economy. There is the possibility of the economy tipping into a recession since rate hikes could lead to less consumer spending. In turn, this can hurt company earnings reports and cause job losses.
Here are a few of the other main reasons why the CPI inflation numbers are important:
- The numbers show your purchasing power: As inflation increases, your purchasing power decreases because every dollar you spend buys you less than before.
- The figures decide government programs: Federal governments use inflation rates to change the payments for programs like food stamps and public school lunches.
- The numbers impact salaries: Companies will use CPI data as a common reference point for keeping salaries competitive in private firms.
Inflation data reports can be frustrating and complex to evaluate, but we can’t ignore their significance on our everyday lives.
What’s next for inflation?
The next set of inflation data will be released on December 13, 2022, at 8:30 AM EST. The Fed won’t discuss rate hikes again until December 13 to 14 at the next FOMC meeting.
It seems like policymakers got their wish because there are signs that the rapid rate hikes are taming the inflation that has been running hot all year. This means that a 0.75% rate hike may likely happen in December, which should calm down the markets and the economy.
The Fed has some wiggle room, and analysts are hoping that the aggressive rate hikes can slow down.
One question that experts and analysts can’t figure out is what will happen to the economy next. There have been concerns all year that the soaring inflation and aggressive rate hikes would tip us into a recession.
Inflation numbers have taken a painfully long time to drop. The good news is that we have cooled off from the 9.1% inflation in June, but we’re nowhere near the finish line when it comes to cooling off the economy to bring inflation to a reasonable level.
Even though the Fed has declared that a soft landing may not be feasible, there’s hope that we can go through a growth recession instead of a full-blown recession.
How should you be investing?
It’s difficult to know how to invest your money during times of high inflation because there are many stock market sell-offs as investors react to the constant rate hikes.
Since the Fed has a target inflation range of 2% to 3%, it’s evident that the rate hikes aren’t over just yet. We can expect further rate hikes and additional stock market volatility in the foreseeable future.
If you’re concerned about investing during times of high inflation, we suggest you take a look at Q.ai’s Inflation Kit. We use the power of AI to better predict and adjust positions in this diversified portfolio of assets designed to help mitigate rising inflation risks. You can also turn on Portfolio Protection to further protect your money during times of high market volatility.
While inflation numbers appear to be showing signs of improvement, this doesn’t mean that we’re in the clear yet. It’s crucial that we all remain cautious since the battle against inflation will go well into 2023.
Download Q.ai today for access to AI-powered investment strategies.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/11/16/inflation-data-when-is-the-next-inflation-report/