The UK Retail Sales Overview
The United Kingdom (UK) docket has the Retail Sales data for September to be released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday, later this session at 06:00 GMT.
UK Retail Sales are expected to decline by 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, swinging from a 0.5% increase seen in August. On an annualized basis, Retail Sales are seen rising 0.6% during the reported month, inching lower from 0.7% prior.
Core Retail Sales, stripping the basket of motor fuel sales, are anticipated to have climbed by 0.7% year-over-year (YoY), lower than the previous reading of 1.2%.
How could the UK Retail Sales affect GBP/USD?
UK Retail Sales data for September could contribute to the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair amid signs of softer consumer spending. Even the surprise uptick may struggle to help the pair hold ground amid rising bets of more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in the remaining year.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faced challenges after BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Swati Dhingra signaled on Thursday that United States (US) tariffs could put downward pressure on prices in the medium term. The preliminary United Kingdom (UK) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data by S&P Global will be eyed later in the day. Attention will be shifted toward the US Consumer Price Index figures due on Friday.
Technically, the GBP/USD pair remains steady after five days of losses, trading around 1.3320 at the time of writing. The pair may target the two-month low of 1.3248, recorded on October 14, followed by the six-month low of 1.3141. On the upside, the initial barrier lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3365, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3433. A break above these levels would improve the short- and medium-term price momentum and open the doors for the pair to test the monthly high of 1.3527.