What’s Wrong With The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

It is the Atlantic hurricane season, and all of the seasonal projection experts said the same thing. It’s going to be another above-average season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website notes, “Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.” To date, three storms have been named, and they were all tropical storms. Alex formed a few days after the official start of the season (June 5-6) after it passed over the peninsula of Florida. Bonnie skirted very close to South America before re-emerging in the Pacific Ocean, and Colin was a sneaky little system that formed just off the coast of the Carolinas. It is early August. Based on the earlier projections, some of you may be asking, “What’s wrong with the 2022 hurricane season?”

The short answer to the question is, “absolutely nothing.” While the past few weeks have been normal to slightly-below normal, it may surprise some readers that activity is still trending slightly ahead of schedule relative to climatological normals over a 30-year period. The third named storm of the season does not typically form until August 3rd. This year it formed around July 4th. On average, we do not expect the first hurricane and major storm (> category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) until August 11th and September 1st, respectively. The next named system in the basin (4th storm) does not usually form until around August 15th.

For the past several weeks, activity has been quiet in the Atlantic Basin, but this should not be a surprise if you have been paying “meteorological attention.” Back in early July, I wrote in Forbes about the early season activity and spoke with hurricane expert Michael Ventrice of DRW. He told me then, “The suppressed phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) will be propagating over Africa and the Indian Ocean over the next few weeks, which will quiet down the Atlantic basin….there are indications that the active phase of the MJO could push back across Africa and the Indian Ocean during the front half of August.” He cautioned, “This could lead to a burst of Atlantic Hurricane activity during the 2nd-3rd week of August.”

Another factor likely suppressing Atlantic activity right now is the presence of relatively dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. In the satellite image above, areas of orange and red represent dry air. Some of the driest air is associated with African dust from the Sahel region often drifts over the Atlantic basin at this time of year. University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy recently said this to the NASA Observatory website about the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), “Not only does it contain dry air, but there’s typically a layer of high wind shear associated with it. Hurricanes hate both of those things.”

If the MJO pattern changes as Michael Ventrice suggested, and the SAL activity wanes over the basin, the timing could be optimal for an uptick in activity in August and September which, climatologically-speaking, is the peak of the season. Phil Klotzbach also reminds us in a Tweet, “Strong low-level easterly winds across the eastern/central tropical Pacific have led to a significant upwelling Kelvin wave which should reinforce #LaNina for the peak of Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October).” Hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin tends to favor La Nina conditions. Klotzbach, who heads the storied Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology program that pioneered seasonal hurricane predictions, also wrote, “4 times in past 30 years has Atlantic had no named storm activity between July 3rd and August 3rd: 1993, 1999, 2000 and 2009.”

Keep your guard up. In terms of the “hurricane season roller coaster” we are just now creeping up the first big hump.