What’s Next For Sixers After James Harden-Ben Simmons Megadeal At Trade Deadline?

After eight-and-a-half years, the Philadelphia 76ers have reached the endgame of their “Process.”

Less than two hours before Thursday’s NBA trade deadline, the Sixers agreed to send Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two first-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for James Harden and Paul Millsap, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. The Sixers will send their 2022 first-round pick—which the Nets can defer to 2023—along with a top-eight-protected 2027 first-round pick to Brooklyn.

Simmons had yet to play for the Sixers all season following an offseason trade request, while word of Harden’s discontent in Brooklyn reached a fever pitch in recent days. The Sixers were running the risk of wasting an MVP-caliber season from Joel Embiid, while the Nets had to worry about the ramifications of not making a trade given Harden’s lackluster recent play.

Following the blockbuster deal, the Nets are the favorites to win this year’s title at +420, per FanDuel Sportsbook, barely ahead of the Golden State Warriors (+460) and Phoenix Suns (+500). The Sixers, who were a +1300 as recently as last week, have jumped up to +650, trailing only that trio and the Milwaukee Bucks (+600).

Players of this caliber rarely change hands at the trade deadline. Harden is a 10-time All-Star and was named the NBA’s MVP in 2017-18, while Simmons is a three-time All-Star and finished second to Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert in last year’s Defensive Player of the Year race. It’s possible that both teams are better off this season thanks to this deal.

The Sixers can’t rest on their laurels, though. They’ll have some major questions to address in the coming days, weeks and months in the wake of this blockbuster.

Buyout candidates

With 14 players under contract, the Sixers now have just over $146 million on their books this season (including a $1.3 million dead-cap hit for George Hill). They’re now $9.4 million over the $136.6 million luxury-tax line, which will result in a tax bill of roughly $14 million after Hill’s $1.2 million set-off.

Because the Sixers are already over the $143.0 million tax apron, they are prohibited from having access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or bi-annual exception this season. They already spent $4.2 million of their taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Georges Niang and Charles Bassey this offseason, and the remaining $1.7 million portion of that MLE began prorating on Jan. 10, leaving them with less than $1.4 million to spend.

That could give the Sixers a slight edge in the buyout market, as teams’ minimum exceptions have been prorating since the beginning of the season. Any player who signs via a minimum exception from this point forward will receive no more than 34 percent of their full minimum-scale salary, and it will continue decreasing each day.

For instance, a 10-year veteran’s minimum annual salary this year would be just north of $2.6 million. However, any 10-year veteran who signs via a minimum exception would receive no more than $900,000 over the remainder of the season.

A backup point guard and backup big man figure to be the Sixers’ biggest priorities on the buyout market following the departures of Simmons, Curry and Drummond. Beyond that, their roster is largely set for the rest of this season.

Harden’s next contract

As part of Thursday’s trade, Harden agreed to pick up his $47.4 million player option for the 2022-23 season, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic. That ensures he can’t become a free agent until 2023 at the earliest.

The Sixers aren’t likely to let it get to that point.

Harden will be eligible to sign a four-year, $222.8 million extension with the Sixers on Aug. 10, exactly six months after Thursday’s trade. Combined with his player option for next season, the Sixers would be on the hook for more than $270 million between Harden’s age-33 and age-37 campaigns, including a massive $61.7 million salary in 2026-27.

A mid-decade cap spike stemming from the NBA’s new national television deals could help ease some of the pain from that megadeal. Forbes Sports’ Morten Jensen reported in September that the cap could rise north of $170 million in 2025-26 if the league and the players’ union don’t reach a cap-smoothing agreement between now and then.

In that scenario, Harden’s $57.7 million salary in 2025-26 would take up 33.7 percent of the Sixers’ cap space. His $47.4 million salary next year is 39.1 percent of the projected $121 million salary cap for 2022-23.  

Either way, there’s enormous risk for the Sixers over the lifespan of Harden’s next contract. He already has more than 30,000 regular-season and nearly 5,000 postseason minutes under his belt, and he’s been dealing with a nagging hamstring injury dating back to last year. It’s fair to wonder whether he’ll eventually turn into an albatross like John Wall or Russell Westbrook have in recent years.

It’s also fair for the Sixers not to worry about that for now.

Maximizing Embiid’s prime

Embiid, who is averaging a league-high 29.4 points on 49.8 percent shooting, 10.9 rebounds, a career-high 4.3 assists and 1.4 blocks per game, has established himself as one of the NBA’s best players over the past two seasons. His development as a face-up shooter, passer and ball-handler have made him virtually unstoppable on offense, and he remains one of the league’s most dominant defenders as well.

With Embiid turning 28 in mid-March, the Sixers weren’t willing to punt an entire season of his prime.

Even if Harden can’t recapture his previous MVP form, he’ll immediately become Embiid’s most accomplished, talented teammate. The two might not be a perfect fit in terms of style, but Embiid has never played with a guard like Harden, and Harden has never played with a big man like Embiid.

The Sixers could have gambled on standing pat at the trade deadline and hoping to acquire Harden for less during the offseason, but that pathway contained plenty of risk, too.

Had the Nets pulled out of their month-long tailspin upon Kevin Durant’s return and won this year’s title, perhaps Harden would have decided to re-sign with Brooklyn this summer. There’s no guarantee that the Nets would play ball on a sign-and-trade or opt-in-and-trade, either, which could have forced the Sixers to salary-dump Simmons and Tobias Harris to carve out enough salary-cap space to sign Harden outright.

It’s easy to focus on the downside of a deal like this. How will Embiid and Harden co-exist on and off the court, particularly given Harden’s rocky co-star marriages in the past? How will Harden’s next contract age? Would the Sixers have been better off trading Simmons for a younger, high-upside prospect such as now-Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton?

All of these are fair questions, and there isn’t one right answer, especially at this point. Then again, this is the price of chasing championships in the NBA.

The Los Angeles Clippers overpaid in their trade for Paul George, even though it also secured them Kawhi Leonard in free agency. The Milwaukee Bucks overpaid in their trade for Jrue Holiday last offseason, although he helped them win a championship this past season. The Chicago Bulls overpaid for DeMar DeRozan this past summer, but he’s having an MVP-caliber season and has the Bulls within 1.5 games of first place in the Eastern Conference.

Title windows don’t last forever. In fact, they often close more quickly than anyone anticipated. Just ask the early-2010s Oklahoma City Thunder or the mid-2010s Clippers.

Had the Sixers not traded Simmons at the deadline, they would have been a tier below a legitimate contender this year, barring his unlikely return. With Harden in the fold, they’re now a real threat to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.

There’s no guarantee that this trade pays off in a title. It’s more likely than not that they come up short. That’s just the reality of the NBA, where 29 teams end their seasons in disappointment every year.

On Thursday, the Sixers took their shot. It’s now time to see what other tricks team president Daryl Morey may have up his sleeve to further bolster their chances at winning this year’s championship.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.