What To Watch For As Biden Addresses A Split Congress Before A Potential 2024 Run

Topline

President Joe Biden will deliver his first State of the Union address under a Republican-controlled House on Tuesday, following a better-than-expected January jobs report that could bolster him ahead of his anticipated re-election bid—but controversies including China’s deployment of a surveillance balloon over the U.S. last week, a debt ceiling stalemate and the president’s handling of classified documents loom large over his post-midterm address.

President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn after returning to the White House on Marine One on … [+] February 06, 2023 in Washington, DC. President Biden spent part of his weekend at Camp David. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

A tough-on-China message: The speech comes days after Biden ordered the federal government to shoot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon and as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are seeking answers from the administration about its failure to prevent the security breach, while amplifying their calls for policies that would limit Chinese competition with U.S. tech and manufacturing industries and tamp down on military and cybersecurity threats—measures Biden is expected to voice support for.

Reigning in Big Tech: Biden is reportedly expected to call for legislation that would limit tech companies from stifling competition and install new privacy protections for users—measures that would come as Ticketmaster/Live Nation faces a congressional probe over its market dominance in the wake of the Taylor Swift concert ticket fiasco and a day before the House Oversight Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing on Twitter’s censorship policies, a key target of Republicans who say social media companies unfairly restrict content.

New taxes: Biden will renew his calls for a “billionaire’s tax,” which would require households worth more than $100 million to pay at least 20% on taxes, the White House said Monday, while also advocating for a quadrupling of the 1% tax on corporate stock buy backs that he signed into law last year.

Healthcare: Biden will urge Congress to expand the $35 insulin price cap for Medicare recipients to all Americans with an insulin prescription, the White House said Monday, and encourage lawmakers to pass legislation that would expand Medicaid coverage in the 11 “holdout states”—along with plans to discuss federal mental health resources, cancer research funding, addiction treatment and stricter enforcement of fentanyl trafficking.

Police reform: The parents of Tyre Nichols, who died after police officers in Memphis were seen beating him in video footage released last month—leading to murder charges against five officers—will be in the audience, and Biden is under pressure from police reform advocates, including the Congressional Black Caucus, to call for tougher penalties on cops accused of misconduct, namely via the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act, which failed to pass during the previous session of Congress and would make it harder for police to claim immunity in misconduct cases, while banning chokeholds and no-knock warrants.

January jobs figures: Biden delivers the speech fresh off a better-than-expected January jobs report that shows unemployment dipped to a 54-year low in January and inflation continues to decline from its 40-year high point last summer—data Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday indicates the U.S. could avoid a recession, despite the Federal Reserve’s campaign to increase interest rates in a bid to tame inflation and a growing number of corporate layoffs.

The U.S.’s role in Ukraine’s war with Russia: Biden, whose 2022 address came a week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is expected to highlight the $30 billion in aid the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the start of his term—and Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, will sit next to First Lady Jill Biden in the audience.

Bipartisanship: Biden is expected to tout legislative accomplishments passed with bipartisan support in Congress, and highlight ongoing issues that appeal to both sides of the aisle—such as reigning in Big Tech and China—while avoiding calling out “MAGA Republicans,” something House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Monday would be “inappropriate.”

What To Watch For

Biden will deliver the address from the House chamber at 9 p.m. ET.

Key Background

Biden’s third State of the Union speech comes a month after Republicans regained control of the House in the midterm election, splitting Congress between the two parties for the first time in his tenure. The dynamic lays the groundwork for legislative gridlock and partisan-fueled political battles that will dominate the second-half of Biden’s term, as he prepares to launch a likely 2024 re-election bid. Already, Republicans have opened probes into Biden’s policies on the Covid-19 pandemic, border security and ratcheted up their sweeping investigation into the finances of the president’s family with a focus on his son, Hunter Biden. The discovery of classified documents at Biden’s Delaware home and former office at a Washington, D.C. think tank earlier this month have given the GOP fresh ammunition to attack Biden and counter the Justice Department’s investigation into former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents. The speech also comes on the heels of Trump’s announcement of a 2024 presidential campaign and polling that shows the majority of Americans are unenthusiastic about a potential rematch.

Big Number

42%. That’s Biden’s approval rating, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday that found Biden’s grade is lower than 12 of the past 13 presidents, except Trump, whose approval rating stood at 37% after his first two years in office. What’s more, four in ten Americans say they are worse off financially than they were at the beginning of Biden’s tenure—more than any other president since the outlets began asking the question in 1986.

What We Don’t Know

Whether border security and the debt ceiling negotiations will be featured in Biden’s speech. Both are issues that have loomed large over Biden’s time in office. Hours before Biden is set to take the stage in the House chamber, the GOP-controlled House Oversight Committee will hold a hearing on his border policies, which come as Republicans are calling for an end to asylum access and as border crossings reached a record high in 2022. Meanwhile, debt ceiling talks are at a stalemate, with the White House holding firm its position that it will not cave to Republicans’ demands to cut spending in exchange for votes to lift the $31.4 trillion cap before a mid-year deadline when the federal government could default on its debt.