What to Look For From MRNA

Moderna Inc. (MRNA), which went public less than four years ago, reported its first profitable year in 2021 as it leapfrogged in size from a startup into a giant company with $18.5 billion in revenue. The catalyst has been soaring demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. While the company’s revenue growth is expected to slow, demand for the vaccine is likely to hold up for some time. The company recently submitted a request for emergency use authorization (EUA) for use of its vaccine in children six months to under six years of age to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). An approval would provide another source of continuing demand for Moderna’s vaccine.

Investors will be watching to see if Moderna can maintain its strong financial performance when the company reports earnings before the open of trading on May 4, 2022 for Q1 FY 2022. Analysts expected Moderna to report its fifth straight quarter of positive earnings per share (EPS) as revenue continues to expand, but at a slowing pace. Moderna’s slower growth reflects, in part, the difficulty for a small company to post faster growth rates as it mushrooms in size.

Moderna’s vaccine started being marketed in the U.S. as Spikevax following its full approval for use in individuals 18 years of age and older by the FDA in late January 2022. The vaccine, which is administered as a two-dose series, had been available under the FDA’s EUA designation since December 2020. A booster dose of the vaccine for individuals 18 years of age and older is available under an EUA. In late March, the FDA approved a second booster dose of the vaccine for adults 50 years of age and older and for certain immunocompromised individuals.

Shares of Moderna have underperformed the broader market over the past year. The stock began the past year underperforming but then started to outperform around the beginning of June 2021. After rising sharply and reaching a peak in early August, the stock drifted downward and shed most of its gains. It began to underperform again starting around mid-January 2022. Moderna’s shares have provided a total return of -23.6% over the past year, well below the S&P 500’s total return of -1.5% as of May 2, 2022.

Moderna Earnings History

Moderna reported Q4 FY 2021 earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. The company reported its fourth straight quarter of positive EPS after a long string of losses per share, helping it to achieve its first annual profits ever. Revenue rose nearly 13-fold compared to the year-ago quarter. While that rapid pace of growth was significantly slower than recent quarters, revenue was the highest ever in Q4 and more than $2.2 billion higher than Q3. Moderna said that it delivered 807 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine for all of 2021. Its board of directors approved a new share repurchase program of $3 billion.

In Q3 FY 2021, Moderna’s earnings and revenue beat consensus estimates. EPS was positive for the third straight quarter as revenue expanded more than 31-fold. But again, that pace of growth was a significant slowdown from the pace set in each of the previous two quarters. Revenue growth was primarily driven by sales of the company’s COVID-19 vaccine as grant revenue for the quarter was relatively flat compared to the same quarter a year ago. Moderna said that it expected total deliveries for the vaccine to be between 700 million and 800 million doses in FY 2021.

Analysts expect another strong quarter for Moderna in Q1 FY 2022, but growth is expected to slow significantly. EPS is expected to rise 105.2% year over year (YOY), marking the fifth straight quarter of positive EPS. Revenue is expected to grow 123.2% compared to the year-ago quarter. For full-year FY 2022, analysts expect another profitable year but are forecasting an EPS decline of 6.8%. Annual revenue is expected to rise 18.1%, a dramatic slowdown from the previous year’s rapid pace.