What To Expect As Economists Worry Recession May Be ‘Underway Now’

On average, economists project total employment increased by 238,000 in March—down from the 311,000 new jobs created in February and potentially marking the lowest monthly gain since April 2021.

Despite growing reports of corporate layoffs hitting the nation’s largest employers, the unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 3.6% after it unexpectedly ticked up last month from a 54-year low of 3.4% in January.

The latest report comes after the Labor Department on Thursday made revisions to its latest data on jobless claims, indicating Americans filed an additional 142,000 first-time unemployment claims over the past three weeks—up 24% from levels previously reported.

“For the first time in a long time, risks are two-sided for [the upcoming] jobs report,” says Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, noting a higher-than-expected figure could indicate the Federal Reserve may need to continue slowing the economy to help tame inflation by hiking interest rates, while anything lower could exacerbate worries about an impending recession.

Those recession concerns have only intensified this week, with “every major data point”—including jobless claims, manufacturing activity and construction spending—signaling the economy is slowing down and pushing some experts to worry it may be slowing down too quickly, says Essaye.

“More likely than not, a recession is underway now,” Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams said in a morning note, noting the updated Labor Department data means the uptick in continued jobless claims over the last six months is about as large as increases in recessions dating back to the 1970s.