What Promoted Clubs’ Fans Can Expect Against The Premier League’s “Big Six”

After Bournemouth’s 9-0 hammering by Liverpool, the Cherries’ then-head coach Scott Parker said he was “not surprised” by the result. He was sacked for his post-match comments, which came after back-to-back defeats to Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Few fans would expect him to get anything from those games, with many fans of newly-promoted sides seeing matches against the so-called “Big Six” of Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City as a “free hit”.

So far this season, Bournemouth have no goals or points from three games against the “Big Six”, Nottingham Forest also have two losses and a minus eight goal difference against Spurs and City, while Fulham did better, earning a point at home to Liverpool on the opening day and losing 2-1 away to Arsenal.

But should these games against the top clubs be totally written off?

In the past five seasons, only two of the fifteen promoted sides have completely drawn a blank in all their games against the “Big Six”. Norwich City managed that unwanted accolade last season, losing ten out of ten of those games. Fulham also picked up zero points back in 2018/19.

But promoted sides usually get some points off the “Big Six” clubs. Over the past five seasons, promoted sides have picked up an average of 6.4 points against the “Big Six”.

The most successful have been Sheffield United in 2019/20 and Wolverhampton Wanderers in 2018/19, who both picked up 13 points from those ten matches. Home fixtures against the “Big Six” have unsurprisingly led to roughly twice as many points as away games. 2021/22 was the worst season for newly promoted sides, who picked up an average of just four points against the “Big Six”, while the season before that, the newly promoted teams picked up twice as many points.

Of course, the “Big Six” isn’t built equally. Fulham in 2020/21 are the only newly promoted side in the past five seasons to beat Liverpool, and no newly promoted side has won at Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium in the same period. Home matches against Arsenal or Manchester United on the other hand have earned points for the promoted side more than 50% of the time, so despite Arsenal’s strong start to the season, perhaps Bournemouth fans shouldn’t treat their 3-0 loss at home to the Gunners as “inevitable”.

The teams that have been relegated at the end of the season have been slightly less successful against the “Big Six”, averaging just five points from those ten games. Only two relegated sides have picked up any points against Manchester City in the past five seasons: Norwich, who won at Carrow Road in 2019/20, and West Bromwich Albion, who drew at the Emirates in 2020/21.

Back in 2017/18, West Brom earned ten points from the “Big Six” and still got relegated, so good results against these sides are no guarantee of survival.

While matches against the other 14 teams are key to surviving in the Premier League, newly promoted teams can expect some points off the top teams, and shouldn’t completely write these fixtures off.