What If Gareth Bale Is A Bust And LAFC Wins MLS Cup Anyway?

When news first circulated this June that Los Angeles Football Club would be adding Gareth Bale to an already talented, first-place squad, conventional wisdom suggested the rest of their season would go one of two ways:

1. Bale would add an extra gear to the Black & Gold as they steamrolled to their first MLS Cup title, or …
2. He would ruin team chemistry as a square peg inside a round hole and sabotage an excellent season.

Perhaps we should’ve seen envisioned a third scenario that already transpired once in his last season at his former club, Real Madrid: That Bale plays a largely ornamental role, and the most talented team in the league — Bale’s team — wins the title anyway.

There’s still two games to go, of course, but that third possibility now appears entirely credible after LAFC vanquished intracity rival the LA Galaxy 3-2 in the Western Conference semifinals on Thursday night.

That’s not to say LAFC haven’t benefited from their ability to splash cash during the summer transfer window where other teams might not have as many resources.

Cristian Arango, added during the 2021 summer window, scored Thursday night’s match-winning goal, his 31st in 52 MLS regular season and playoff appearances. Denis Bouanga, signed this summer from St. Etienne in France, was man of the match with two goals and a key contribution on Arango’s winner. He also scored the goal that sealed LAFC’s Supporters’ Shield triumph in Portland.

But Bale was not even on the team sheet, officially recovered from a minor injury but not yet fit enough to play, according to the FS1 broadcast. And given how LAFC acquitted itself, it’s hard to imagine a scenario at this point where he is anything more than a bit-part player this postseason.

While Bale started life at LAFC well, scoring twice in his first four matches, it’s been downhill since. He’s played 355 minutes in 12 appearances. His new side failed to score while he was on the field in either of his two starts, and overall LAFC have posted a -5 goal differential when he’s on the pitch. In those same games, they’ve outscored opponents by 11 goals when he’s not on the field.

So while there remains some chance he could be scapegoated as the one piece of the LAFC puzzle that failed to come through if they fall short of MLS Cup, it’s near-equally likely he could leave a somewhat confusing legacy as an MLS Cup winner.

There’s many examples of European stars who come to MLS and immediately lift their new teams to a next level. Among them: Robbie Keane at the LA Galaxy, David Villa at New York City FC and Wayne Rooney at D.C. United. Equally, there are stars whose arrivals seemed to do as much harm as good, at least at first. Exhibit A would be the early years of David Beckham’s tenure at the LA Galaxy, and the most recent example might be Gonzalo Higuain’s first season-and-a-half at Inter Miami.

But what do you make of a star of Bale’s brightness having almost no tangible impact?

One interpretation could be that LAFC have built one of the first MLS brands bigger than a single global icon. But Bale has been — from outward appearances at least — a model citizen since his arrival in Southern California. And this might all have gone differently if he had expressed displeasure publicly with how he had been used so far.

A second potential argument is that his mere presence had a benefit even if it didn’t come with on-field production. The idea that a guy who played at Real Madrid could replace you if you don’t perform could have been a motivator to players like Arango and Bouanga, in particular. Conversely, all the attention given to Bale since his arrival may have actually taken pressure off the rest of the roster.

In the long term, it seems like Bale’s MLS chapter is unlikely to change many minds in front offices about their approach toward signing big stars. Clubs inclined to stay away from big names are likely to look at Bale’s underwhelming impact as evidence that such star power is unnecessary. Clubs who want glitz and glamour might see Bale’s travails as evidence you can swing and miss on one big signing and still succeed on the field if you do other things right.