What Exactly Can The Milwaukee Bucks Do This Offseason?

As the Milwaukee Bucks work to fill their head coaching vacancy, there is some confusion about what they can and can’t do this offseason. It’s even more complicated thanks to the new CBA that partially goes into effect this summer.

The NBA salary cap has always been a complex beast. Unlike other sports, teams like the Bucks, who are over the cap, usually can’t let a player walk in free agency and fill his salary slot with another player of similar pay.

For example, suppose Khris Middleton declines his $40.4 million player option this summer and signs with another team in free agency. In that case, Milwaukee can’t use that $40 million to sign another player or players to fill his spot. They’re out of luck.

In reality, the Bucks have very few tools to improve their roster this offseason. I’ll take you through exactly what they can and cannot do.

Current Salary Cap Position

It all begins and ends with their salary cap position. Each team has restrictions based on how much committed salary they have and where it lands in relation to the cap, the luxury tax line and the second apron.

Milwaukee has six players under contract entering this summer—Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, and MarJon Beauchamp—for a whopping $115.2 million. That puts them about $19 million under the 2023-24 salary cap.

However, both Middleton ($40.4 million) and Jevon Carter ($2.2 million) have player options. If they both accept (there’s strong reason to believe Carter will decline and look for a nice pay raise), the Bucks suddenly have $157.8 million on their payroll, are over the cap, and are just a few million away from the luxury tax line of $162 million.

Moving on to their unrestricted free agents, Milwaukee has tough decisions to make on Brook Lopez, Joe Ingles, and Jae Crowder. Lopez is eligible for a deal worth up to three years and $54 million. It’s reasonable to expect he could get a per-year deal in the $15-16 million range. Ingles could return for $7.7 million.

Other free agents include Wes Matthews, Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard, and Thanasis Antetokounmpo.

If Milwaukee re-signs any of the above-mentioned players or fills out their roster, they’ll be over the second apron, further limiting the moves they can make this summer (we’ll walk through those in a bit).

Other notes: Giannis is eligible for an extension on September 22nd and Allen is eligible for one on October 1st.

Draft Pick

The Bucks hold the 58th draft pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, their sole selection. This is the only draft capital they hold this year, and we’ll see if they keep it or trade it in a package deal.

No Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception

Due to the Bucks very likely being over the “second apron”, they won’t be able to use the taxpayer mid-level exception that would normally be available to them. This is a change in the new CBA. In past years, even teams this deep into the tax could still use this tool to sign an outside free agent to a limited deal. Milwaukee used it last year to bring in Ingles.

“Normal” Trade Rules Still Apply

Although the limited taxpayer mid-level exception goes into effect this summer, the trade restriction won’t start until next year (a rule that says teams who are over the second apron can’t receive salaries that are greater than 110 percent of the outgoing salaries). The NBA still has rules about incoming/outgoing salary matches, but it’s not as severe.

Blow It Up or Run It Back

I don’t blame you if you skipped over a lot of the above salary cap information. It can get very dry and complex, especially with the new rules. The TLDR version is: Basically, that leaves Milwaukee with two choices: To blow it up or to run it back. There’s no middle ground to be had.

After they re-sign key free agents, work through the Middleton and Carter situations, and fill out their roster, they will be over the second apron and have completely restricted themselves from bringing in outside players to improve their roster. The only tool that will be available is signing veterans to minimum deals.