What Does Chet Holmgren’s Season-Ending Injury Mean For OKC Thunder?

“Luck plays a much bigger role in all of our lives than we’d like to admit,” said Oklahoma City Thunder GM Sam Presti back in May.

Luck isn’t always good, which is something that’s also out of our control. Like several other press conferences over the past two years, mentioning luck is how Presti opened his presser on Thursday morning to discuss the season-ending injury of Oklahoma City rookie Chet Holmgren. He’s been vocal on the topic as it relates to the rebuild and is fully aware that good and bad fortune will be faced on the team’s path back to contention.

It’s about how you respond to those events that is equally as important.

Holmgren’s injury was suffered in a pro-am event over the weekend, which featured some of the top players in the league. In fact, the play in which the No. 2 overall pick injured himself was in transition as he looked to contest a LeBron James shot attempt at the rim. This resulted in a Lisfranc injury to his right foot.

While that event was later called off due to poor floor conditions, it had nothing to do with Holmgren’s injury. There was speculation that condensation on the floor may have led to the injury, but Presti confirmed it was unrelated.

In fact, Presti mentioned this injury could have happened anywhere. Basketball players work out, practice and play all throughout the year in different settings.

The narrative surrounding Holmgren his entire life and entering the NBA was that he’s too thin. While the 7-footer is one of the skinniest players in the league, this injury is also completely unrelated to how he is built. It was a contact injury that could have happened to a player of any height or weight.

The good news is that this injury isn’t expected to linger throughout his career. Once surgery has been done and the foot is healed, the expectation is that it shouldn’t bother Holmgren ever again. Additionally, this is a common injury in football with a great success rate of full recovery. This means sports doctors know exactly how to treat and rehab this to ensure Holmgren is back on the court and better than ever for the 2023-24 season.

According to Presti, Holmgren is in good spirits. He’s already lifting weights to strengthen his upper body and is able to shoot a basketball without putting weight on the injured foot.

Holmgren’s early professional career was off to a great start. He competed in NBA Summer League in both Salt Lake City and Las Vegas, showing flashes of why he was a top pick in the draft.

The 7-footer finished the summer with extremely productive numbers that would have likely translated to the regular season given the role he would have obtained even as a rookie.

Now that he’s out for the entire 2022-23 season, what does this mean for the Thunder in the near and long term?

Longer term, likely not much. Holmgren is the type of player that has generational talent, meaning if he recovers fully he should still be a franchise changer. Ten years from now when he’s a veteran, we probably won’t look back and wonder how much better he could have been if he didn’t miss his rookie season.

Furthermore, this shouldn’t drastically impact the future of the team either. The Thunder were already expected to be a bottom-five team which means this injury shouldn’t impact the outcome of their upcoming season. Additionally, as long as he comes back healthy the team is set up to be ready to compete in two or three seasons.

“I don’t think missing the first year is really going to change the outcome,” Presti said on Thursday. “When he comes back, I think he’s going to be a force.”

While holistically this single injury shouldn’t change the outcome of Holmgren’s career or the trajectory of the franchise, it does impact smaller pieces of the puzzle this season.

For starters, Holmgren was one of the only true centers on the roster. Outside of him, most of the players that have the ability to play center are over 30 years old and not part of the long-term plans. As such, center depth immediately becomes a concern for this team.

Will the Thunder go all in on the small-ball concept, or will they make a move to acquire a big between now and the start of the season?

Holmgren was a legitimate NBA Rookie of the Year candidate entering this season. While there’s no other rookies on the roster that have the immediate upside that he does, Oklahoma City did select two other prospects in the lottery of the 2022 NBA Draft.

Ousmane Dieng (No. 11 overall) will likely be a project this season, but Jalen Williams (No. 12 overall) should be an impact player from opening night. It would take quite the season for him to be the top rookie in this class, but now there’s a clear runway for him to at least make one of the NBA All-Rookie teams. He should be the clear best first-year player on this Thunder roster with plenty of opportunity to get minutes.

Williams does play a completely different position than Holmgren, but the injury still opens up minutes for him as OKC gets creative with rotations. He’s extremely versatile and can play up to four positions. Williams was spectacular in NBA Summer League doing a variety of things.

Perhaps the most interesting part of Holmgren’s injury is how it will affect wins in the upcoming season. Again, Oklahoma City wasn’t expected to be good but this does make an impact.

Now the ceiling for the Thunder appears lower, and the floor does as well. Not only could they be a bottom five team, but they might have the outright worst record in the NBA.

“Something positive will come from this,” Presti said on Thursday.

For the Thunder, that positivity could appear in many ways. The most likely scenario is through the draft lottery, as Oklahoma City will likely land one of the top picks in the 2023 NBA Draft.

With that in mind, Holmgren could be making his rookie debut in the 2023-24 season alongside another top pick. If someone like Victor Wembanyama lands in Oklahoma City, there could legitimately be two teammates on the Thunder battling for Rookie of the Year honors.

Holmgren’s injury is absolutely devastating news for the Thunder, but it doesn’t have to be all bad. Assuming the injury concerns don’t continue throughout his career, things should still be fine. The 7-footer and his team still have a bright future and could learn from the adversity. There’s a great chance this injury doesn’t have any impact on the team’s long-term rebuilding success.