Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, enables users to bet on the outcome of real-world events using the power of blockchain.
Participants use the USDC stablecoin to trade “yes” or “no” shares on events like elections, financial milestones, or regulatory decisions. The prices reflect the collective market sentiment on the likelihood of an outcome — effectively turning the platform into a real-time prediction engine driven by incentives.
July 31 Outlook: Traders Grow Pessimistic
According to the first chart from Polymarket, the chances of a Ripple ETF being approved by July 31, 2025 have plummeted to just 22%, a sharp drop of 31 percentage points. This suggests that traders on the platform believe it’s unlikely the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will greenlight such an ETF in the immediate future.
The chart shows that initial optimism in December and January, where expectations peaked above 60%, has given way to steady declines. The most significant drop occurred in late May, reflecting possible shifts in sentiment based on regulatory delays or lack of official updates.
December 31 Forecast: Strong Belief in Year-End Approval
By contrast, Polymarket data for December 31, 2025 paints a far more optimistic picture. The probability of Ripple ETF approval by year-end stands at 83%, up 13 percentage points recently. Despite fluctuations earlier in the year, the chart now shows a steady climb in confidence through May.
This discrepancy between the July and December markets indicates that while near-term approval is seen as unlikely, investors and market participants are betting heavily on a resolution before the close of the year.
Conclusion
While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, long-term sentiment on Polymarket suggests strong confidence in a 2025 Ripple ETF approval. Traders appear to be pricing in regulatory progress, even if it takes several more months to materialize.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/what-are-the-chances-xrp-etf-gets-approved-polymarket-data-breaks-it-down/