What An Israeli Strike On Iran’s Nuclear Sites Might Look Like

Israel is reportedly planning to launch long-range strikes against Iran’s nuclear program if the current nuclear talks with the United States collapse. Such a move could have grave ramifications for the stability of the region, which experienced two Iranian and Israeli attacks and counterattacks in 2024.

U.S. intelligence suggests that Israel is actively preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear sites amid ongoing negotiations between Tehran and the Trump administration over a new nuclear deal, CNN reported on May 20. The following day, Axios reported that any Israeli attack would not “be a one-off, but a military campaign lasting at least a week.”

Unsurprisingly, Iran condemned the possibility of an Israeli attack. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Tehran would view Washington as a “participant” in any Israeli attack.

The Trump administration and the Arab Gulf states are against any attack, favoring negotiations. President Donald Trump confirmed Wednesday that he had conveyed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that an Israeli strike on Iran “would be very inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution.” Furthermore, Saudi Arabia warned Iran last month to take Trump’s openness to negotiate over the issue seriously since it might avert an otherwise inevitable Israeli attack.

Iran insists that a deal must preserve its right to continue uranium enrichment, the main obstacle in the way of a new deal.

Whether an Israeli strike transpires in the coming days and weeks is anybody’s guess. If it does, it’s questionable how much damage Israel could do without direct American support.

“Any Israeli campaign on Iran without the U.S. support will face severe limitations given the long distance between the two countries, even though the IDF is known for its ingenuity and might surprise us all,” Arash Azizi, a visiting fellow at Boston U and author of ‘The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran’s Global Ambitions,’ told me.

“But even if Israel attacks with U.S. support, it can only cause so much damage,” he said. “The work can pick up and continue. It’s all about what settlement is to follow the attacks.”

On October 26, 2024, Israel unleashed a large-scale wave of airstrikes against Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities without losing any aircraft. Those four hours of strikes seemingly inflicted significant damage on Iran’s strategic air defenses, especially its long-range, Russian-built S-300 air defense missile systems. Israeli jets and drones used Syrian and Iraqi airspace to mount the attack, which likely included significant numbers of standoff munitions, including air-launched ballistic missiles.

“Iran’s air defense will certainly be overwhelmed by a week-long Israeli campaign,” Azizi said. “Also to the point, Iran’s lack of a proper air force will limit its ability to defend the country.”

Iran’s air force is antiquated, consisting mainly of third- and fourth-generation F-4 Phantom and F-14 Tomcat fighters inherited from the pre-1979 regime of the American-allied Shah, as well as some Soviet-made MiG-29A Fulcrums acquired in the early 1990s. Tehran has yet to receive the fourth-generation Su-35 Flankers it ordered from Russia earlier in this decade. Conversely, Israel has a much larger and more modern air force, the only one in the region to operate the fifth-generation American F-35 Lighting II stealth strike fighter.

Iran’s nuclear facilities are scattered across the country. Undoubtedly, the program’s two most important sites are the Natanz Enrichment Complex and the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.

“Israel will look at all of Iran’s enrichment facilities and other nuclear facilities, but the main targets are Fordow and Natanz,”

Recent open-source analysis reveals that Iranian air defenses around Natanz are significantly weaker than previously expected. Nevertheless, there are likely limits to the damage that Israeli F-35I stealth jets attacking Natanz and Fordow could do to these respective sites since they are buried underground and have recently been fortified.

Destroying such sites would require enormous bunker-buster munitions that Israel lacks and heavy strategic bombers, which Israel also lacks, to carry them. The U.S. Air Force’s B-2 Spirit stealth bomber is currently the only aircraft certified to carry the 30,000-pound GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Six of these were recently deployed on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean within striking range of Iran’s nuclear sites. However, they have since been withdrawn and replaced with older, non-stealthy B-52s after Trump wrapped up the U.S. air campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and pursued negotiations with Tehran.

It’s unclear if Israel would simply repeatedly strike Natanz and Fordow to render them at least temporarily unusable. It’s conceivable it might use its F-35s to destroy any air defenses and clear a path for F-15s and F-16s to carry out bombing runs. It is also conceivable that it has an entirely different plan altogether.

On September 8, 2024, Israel launched Operation Many Ways, a commando raid against an Iranian missile production facility built beneath a mountain near Masyaf in northwest Syria. Covered by airstrikes, Shaldag commandos were helicoptered to the site, which they promptly raided and destroyed with explosives planted inside that detonated as they flew away.

It’s unclear if Israel would attempt something similar against Natanz and Fordow, especially considering the much greater distance involved.

“I think Israel can certainly plan on commando raids in Iran,” Azizi said. “It has a very impressive intelligence penetration in Iran, has focused on the country for decades, and carried out countless operations on Iranian soil.”

“It is likely to achieve impressive results by such measures.”

Iran would undoubtedly seek retaliation for any significant Israeli strike against its nuclear program. It hasn’t yet retaliated for the October 26 strikes, which were Israel’s retaliation for a large-scale Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel.

“Iran will likely retaliate by attacking Israeli soil directly and significantly,” Azizi said. “This will be its major move.”

However, it’s unclear whether Tehran would risk striking American bases in the region, especially in the Gulf states with which it is currently on good terms and which refuse to allow the U.S. to use their territories for any strike against Iran. Iran previously launched a ballistic missile strike on an Iraqi airbase hosting U.S. troops in January 2020 following the assassination of Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike ordered by Trump near the end of his first term.

“Whether Iran will also attack the U.S. bases or not, and whether this will be done directly or via Iraqi militia attacks with plausible deniability, depends on what kind of communication goes on between Iran and the U.S. prior to and during the attack and how much support, if any, the U.S. gives Israel in the attack on Iran,” Azizi said.