Welcome relief in a long race – Standard Chartered

US-China trade truce is offering a welcomed relief. Markets expect a H2 slowdown and forecast 2025 growth at 4.9%; deflation pressure to linger, Standard Chartered’s economists report.

US-China trade truce eases pressure on China

“With the US-China trade truce offering welcome relief, we see no urgency to ramp up stimulus by year-end. We maintain our call of another 10bps policy rate cut in Q4, with a risk of a pause until 2026.”

“Longer-term, China will likely focus on developing home-grown technology while pushing for RMB internationalization. The government appears to be aiming for average growth of around 4.5% in the next five years.”